Reform UK’s plan to overhaul the welfare system risks alienating would-be voters and could stop the party from winning the broader support it needs to succeed at the next general election, the country’s leading pollster has warned.
At a press conference on Monday, Robert Jenrick, the party’s Treasury spokesman, unveiled plans to abolish the personal independence payments (PIP) system and make long-term claimants clean up their high street as part of Reform’s pledge to save £50bn from the welfare bill.
Professor Sir John Curtice told The Independent that Nigel Farage, by promising to tighten up the benefit system, continued his party’s appeal to socially conservative Britons.
Welfare is a key issue for Reform voters, with a study published this year by the National Centre for Social Research finding 29 per cent were “unsympathetic” on welfare, compared to 14 per cent of Labour voters and 21 per cent of Tory voters.
However, Sir John said that Reform’s pursuit of its core ideology could mean the party restricts its appeal across the electorate.
Analysis of the UK constituencies shows that in three of Reform MPs’ wards the proportion of constituents claiming PIP was higher than 10 per cent: Runcorn and Helsby 11.9 per cent, Clacton 11.8 per cent and Boston 10.8 per cent.
Many of the party’s target constituencies, those with the lowest swing to win from the last election, also have high claimant rates. In Llanelli, 11.1 per cent of constituents claim PIP, in Sittingbourne 10.7 per cent and in Dudley 10.4 per cent.
Mr Jenrick said PIP would be replaced by another scheme restricted to only the “gravely ill and severely challenged”. A BBC report said that Reform’s policy document, to be published next week, estimated some 2.89m people would have their disability payments removed or modified.
Sir John said: “These proposals are proposals that fit Reform’s current ideological appeal. They’re very much appealing to socially conservative Britain, that’s their core ideology, and that social conservatism also stretches into attitudes towards certain aspects of welfare.
“On the one hand, it gives them a very clear constituency which they’re able to do very well in. On the other hand, it confines them to that constituency as well... and that’s the other side of the coin. So yes, there are risks involved. One could argue that a reasonable objective to Reform would be to try to widen that appeal.”
Sir John said that the party had been following a strategy of appealing to a section of British society, but he warned it had limitations. “Its limits were probably reached in the autumn of last year when they got to 32 per cent [voter intention polling], but in our fractured politics 32 per cent can’t be enough [to win a general election].”
Mr Jenrick unveiled the party’s policy on welfare at a press conference on Monday morning, in which he said people who were claiming benefits despite being able to work were “taking advantage” of their neighbours. He claimed that the average tax burden for each family was on track to reach £7,000 by 2031 to pay for the welfare state.
Under the planned reforms, cash payments for low-level conditions would end and be replaced with disability support accounts, run by local councils and mayors, to cover costs such as equipment, adaptations, transport and personal assistance.
Employers could also be obliged to pay a “return to work cover” insurance to fund the cost of the first two years after an employee is signed off sick. Foreign nationals would also be banned from claiming almost all types of benefits in the UK, including EU nationals.
Mr Jenrick said Reform’s “welfare to work” policy would mean that people who are long-term claimants and fit to work would be forced to do 20 hours of work a week in the community.
He said: “They’ll work to clean up high streets and parks, to beautify neglected places, to carry out minor repairs, to staff libraries and community centres, to perform many other tasks from the list that we’ve published today. We’ll also embrace local charities and community groups and ask them to help us and take part. If claimants refuse to participate or fail to show up, they’ll face penalties.
“Let me speak very plainly. If people who are capable of work refuse, then they’ll get nothing. That’s fair.”
Reform will also cut employers’ national insurance rates to support people on long-term sick leave being brought back into work.
Mr Jenrick said: “A Reform UK government will fix Britain’s broken welfare schemes to restore fairness to the system, caring for those who are unable to support themselves, helping those who can towards independence, opportunity, and to take full advantage of life, and always keeping sight of that belief, contribution from those who can make it for security for those who can’t.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said there was “relatively little detail” on how the new assessment for the scheme replacing PIP, or how the party would achieve its plan to toughen up the system after previous attempts had failed. But associate director Tom Waters said the party could make large savings if it followed through with its plan to remove benefits from non-UK citizens.
The plans have been widely criticised by other parties, with the Lib Dems describing them as “senseless and cruel”, while the Conservatives have accused them of “fantasy” calculations.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said: “Their fantasy numbers are simply not plausible.”
Charities have also reacted. Abdi Mohamed, head of policy at disability equality charity Scope, said the party’s proposals “should be about creating opportunities, not pushing disabled people into poverty and calling it compassion”.
Jackie O’Sullivan, from learning disability charity Mencap, said: “Cuts of this scale would be devastating and make efforts to try and help disabled people into work unlikely to succeed.”
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