Support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has collapsed, giving Kemi Badenoch’s Tories their biggest lead over them since the general election in 2024 and a major boost for Labour, according to the latest Ipsos poll.
The survey has put Reform on just 20 per cent with the Tories four points ahead on 24 per cent – but it also suggests that Andy Burnham’s Labour could win a large majority if there were a general election.
In a boost to the prime minister, Labour has its biggest poll rating since the last election, on 32 per cent.
According to political consultancy Electoral Calculus, this would give Labour a large majority of 134 MPs, slightly down on the 167 majority they won in July 2024.
Research director Keiran Pedley said: "Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time.
"The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them."
Looking at the collapse of Reform’s support, he suggested that the “tectonic plates” are shifting.
He said: “On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently and now this is reflected in the Conservatives – not Reform UK – being in a clear second place.
“However, we should be mindful against overreacting to one poll.”
He added: “The government faces a challenging Budget this coming week and the lesson of the last year is that British politics is volatile. The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months' time too.”
A year ago Reform was polling at above 30 per cent and Mr Farage was favourite to become prime minister at the next election. The Ipsos findings followed a YouGov poll last week which showed voters no longer consider Reform to be a “main party”.
But even before Labour ditched Sir Keir Starmer in the summer, Reform's support had been sliding.
Since Mr Burnham became leader, Reform support has continued to drop, while Labour has opened up a bigger lead, taking advantage of a collapse in support for the Green Party on the left.
Reform has been hit with a number of scandals including a standards commissioner investigation in parliament over a £5m donation Mr Farage received from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Meanwhile, there are police investigations into deputy leader Richard Tice and Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick.
A Channel 4 investigation on receiving illegal donations saw chief of staff Dan Jukes and policy director James Orr forced to step down and in recent weeks, an ITV investigation revealed racism among candidates and councillors in the party.
However, Raheem Kassam, a key ally of Mr Farage, lashed out at the poll, warning the UK that money would be pulled out of the country if Reform fails to win.
Commenting on the Ipsos poll, he said: “I suspect this isn’t actually very good data but on the off chance that it is accurate, I will have no sympathy for the Britons who vote for the uniparty and then endure the worst decade they’ve ever experienced between now and 2036. The capital flight will be astounding. You’ll be begging for foreign aid in rather than dishing it out.”
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Greens registered just 8 per cent of support – less than half the high point it enjoyed when it won the Gorton and Denton by-election in February and appeared to be eating into Labour’s vote.
Meanwhile, with questions continuing on Sir Ed Davey’s leadership the Lib Dems came up with just 9 per cent which would see them lose almost half their seats at the next election.
Read MoreAndy Burnham: Time for honest discussion about freedom of movement between UK and EU
Osborne lists Tory Brexiteers who stopped him cutting welfare in warning to Badenoch
Tears, Budget, and Strictly anxiety: Andy Burnham makes Gogglebox history
Burnham jokes about Budget on first PM celebrity Gogglebox appearance
All 8 of Slovakia’s regional heads were reelected
English mayors to get new powers and more funding to boost regional growth
.jpg?width=1200&auto=webp&trim=0%2C3%2C0%2C2)