First of two parts
AMONG the many regions in the globe, Southeast Asia is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and global energy shocks, which can severely impact food production.
This I say as the current global energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict will surely impact food production in Southeast Asia sooner or later, as the region is highly dependent on inorganic fertilizer made from crude oil. And while Vietnam can manufacture a big portion of its fertilizer needs, it still needs inputs such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) that has to be shipped from the Middle East.
If that was not enough, there are scientists forecasting a “Super El Niño” occurring in the latter part of this year, with Southeast Asia among to be the most affected.
To recall, the 2024 El Nino event, which was not “Super” or extreme, caused rice inflation to rise to records of 23.7 percent in February and a 15-year high of 24.4 percent in March of that year. At that time, fertilizer supply and prices were stable.
The last time an extreme El Niño hit the Earth was on 2015-2016, lasting a staggering 18 months and damaging 1.48 million metric tons of crops in the Philippines.
So, is Southeast Asia or the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) headed for a “perfect storm” in the next months with a possible fertilizer shortage caused by the Middle East conflict, and an impending extreme or “Super El Niño”?
Surely, there would be painful lessons if that perfect storm hits the region.
This early, however, I believe that we can learn lessons from a possible worst-case scenario, or Southeast Asia lacking fertilizers and an extreme El Niño hitting the region simultaneously.
As it is now, the agriculture sector of Southeast Asia is production-centric, or is optimized for production based on the presumption that affordable fertilizer will always be available and fair weather or climactic conditions will largely prevail.
But this approach has resulted in natural resource degradation because of traditional or “modern” farming practices, fragmentation of value chains, and persistent inequality in the rural areas.
At the same time, Asean stands at a strategic advantage — with dynamic markets, a strong smallholder base, and increasing digital readiness. We can see this first-hand in the Philippines.
Furthermore, the Philippine delegation headed by Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. proposed during the 2025 Asean Ministers of Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) meeting on Oct. 2-3, 2025, here in Manila, the adoption in principle of the Asean-wide the Regenerative and Resilient Agriculture, which was approved by AMAF.
The imperative is clear: transform agriculture into a regenerative, resilient, and market-driven agrifood system that works for farmers, consumers, and the planet.
And this transformation must be: science-based; farmer-centered; market-oriented; and scalable and investment-ready.
That looks complex at first, but if we untangle the current food production system in the region, we can see how complicated things have become. And sometimes or oftentimes, we see a mess here and there. If that was not the case, the Southeast Asian agriculture sector would not be very vulnerable to global energy shocks and extreme weather events.
So, where do we move forward from here?
My answer is: We have an expanded vision for transitioning agriculture to an agrifood system that is sustainable and resilient.
A transformation
What Southeast Asia as a collective must do is not just improve farming practices, but to transform the entire agrifood system — from production to processing, distribution, and consumption.
Here the key shifts:
– From farm productivity to agrifood system resilience;
– From commodity focus to value chain integration;
– From isolated interventions to systems transformation; and
– From farmer as producer to farmer as entrepreneur.
Agriculture must evolve into an agribusiness-driven, value-adding, and globally competitive system or model.
And the core pillar is inclusive agribusiness, as smallholder farmers dominate Asean agriculture but remain weakly linked to markets. Hence, inclusive agribusiness ensures they are integrated into value chains; equipped with technology and finance; and able to capture greater value.
So, we need to build strong farmer cooperatives and enterprises (FCEs), and establish contract farming and aggregation models. Furthermore, FCEs should have access to credit, insurance, and digital platforms, and must be active participants in creating fair and transparent market systems.
With the aforementioned, let me state very clearly that inclusion is not only a social policy — it is an economic growth strategy.
Furthermore, the central strategy to elevate Asean agriculture is the Public-Private-Producer Partnership (PPPP) model. PPPP goes beyond the traditional Public-Private Partnership (PPP) where the farmer is not a partner but a mere beneficiary.
Through PPPPs, the farmer is treated or elevated as an equal among the players and stakeholders. Hence, PPPP can also become the scaling engine in the transformation to regenerative and resilient agriculture.
Here are roles of the actors and stakeholders in PPPPs, and their roles and responsibilities.
The public sector — most especially the national government and the local government units (LGUs) — should provide the policy, infrastructure, and incentives for the transformation of the country’s agriculture sector.
For its part, the private sector must provide investments, technology, and market access, including the international market. Foreign investors should also be given incentives to invest in support systems for agriculture, such as logistics and post-harvest facilities such as cold chain storage.
For the farmers themselves, their role is to adopt innovation and enterprise development, turning themselves into entrepreneurs, cooperatives or corporations from mere producers of crops. Consolidation is also key here, as most farmers in the Philippines have small landholdings, sometimes one or less than a hectare.
With clearly defined roles, PPPP transforms farmers from passive recipients into active economic players. And the younger generation of farmers can help take the lead in redefining the Filipino farmer, to one who is an adept entrepreneur and ready to adopt the latest innovations, and take advantage of market opportunities.
The strategic outcome of PPPPs aimed at transforming agriculture into a sustainable and resilient agrifood system are de-risked investments in agriculture, stronger and inclusive value chains, and accelerated scaling of innovations.
Over the short to long term, the gains of each outcome will compound, creating a powerful impetus for the agriculture stakeholders and players to accelerate the transformation of the sector to a sustainable and resilient agrifood system.
And it can be done.
In the second part of this column-series, I will discuss the Water, Energy, Food, Environment (WEFE) nexus that is the systems anchor for the transformation.
