Relative newcomer emerges as kingmaker after New Zealand election yields deadlock

WorldPolitics
8 Nov 2026 • 4:49 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

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Relative newcomer emerges as kingmaker after New Zealand election yields deadlock

New Zealand may need to wait for weeks to find out who can form the next government as neither the left nor the right has secured a decisive victory in the general election.

The ruling centre-right National Party and the main opposition Labour remain in a deadlock even after the counting of over 99 per cent of the ballots, with the relative newcomer Opportunity Party shaping up to be a key decider in the incredibly tight race.

The election, which began on 26 October and ended on Saturday, was defined by voter disillusionment with the two main contenders.

Prime minister Christopher Luxon’s National won just 29.21 per cent of the preferred party vote, a collapse of its previous result, and secured its 42 seats entirely by winning local constituency races.

Mr Luxon, who faced two separate confidence votes from his own lawmakers this year, further slumped in popularity as leader close to election day.

However, Labour also won just 29.36 per cent of the party vote, suggesting a second election defeat for its leader Chris Hipkins.

In spite of winning about the same party vote percentage as National, Labour secured only 36 seats on numbers because they won fewer local races.

Minor parties on the left saw bolstered support. The Greens won 16 seats and the Indigenous rights group Te Pāti Māori secured five.

The total number of seats in New Zealand's parliament changes due to quirks in how seat allocations are calculated. There would currently be 131 lawmakers elected, with 66 seats needed for a majority.

Mr Luxon's conservative bloc would currently hold 67, a razor-thin margin likely to discomfit a leader managing a three-way government with two emboldened minor parties.

However, the left bloc held only 57 seats before the historically left-leaning special votes were counted.

Even if the final tally boosted the left’s seats slightly, Mr Hipkins would apparently need support from Qiulae Wong of the Opportunity Party to govern.

Before the election, Mr Luxon repeatedly ruled out negotiating with Ms Wong. On Sunday, however, he sidestepped questions about whether his vanishingly slim lead had changed his mind.

Labour party leader Chris Hipkins speaks to supporters (Getty)

"Tonight New Zealand has spoken,” Mr Hipkins said, addressing supporters on Saturday. “It may take us a little bit longer to figure out what exactly it is that you've said.”

In the lead-up to the election, it was clear from polls that voters had lost faith in the two major parties amid frustrations over a sluggish economy and ageing infrastructure.

Household budgets remained strained and ⁠unemployment rose to about 6 per cent in the third quarter, the highest it had been in New Zealand in over a decade.

Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong reacts as she addresses supporters in Auckland (AP)

The tight deadlock means the country's smaller parties can potentially participate more in a governing coalition.

“I think it’s going to take some time before that becomes clear,” ACT leader David Seymour said when asked if the coalition led by the National Party would return to power.

The new government will be formed only after official final results are released on 27 November.

Special ballots, including from overseas voters, will not be included in the final count until this date.

Overseas voters have historically favoured the left, meaning their votes will be crucial in races that remain tight between Labour and National candidates.

It appears that parties won’t begin negotiations to form a government until final tallies are released on 27 November, when their exact number of seats can be confirmed.

Mr Luxon on Sunday urged people to “calm down” and enjoy a break from politics. “I think everyone's over politics, so let's all have a bit of a break for the next three weeks,” he told reporters.

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