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THE ringgit is expected to trade within the 4.10-4.15 range against the US dollar next week, underpinned by the country’s resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, even as global investors navigate uncertainty over the United States’ monetary policy.
Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd noted in a report that the probability of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has dropped sharply.
“Just a month ago, the odds were over 90 per cent, but following the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, they dropped to about 70 per cent and are now considered to be roughly a coin toss,” the bank stated.
It added that the Fed’s caution stems from reliance on outdated inflation data, which has left policymakers “flying blind.”
“However, we still expect a December cut, followed by two more in 2026, as labour-market softness becomes harder to ignore, though stagflation risks make a Fed pause plausible,” Kenanga said.
The research house suggested that despite policy uncertainty, US economic fundamentals appear soft enough to weaken the dollar, thereby supporting the ringgit’s near-term stability.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the ringgit’s approach to a four-year high reflected market confidence in Malaysia’s economic prospects.
“I sense that market participants remain positive on Malaysia’s prospects. The third-quarter 2025 gross domestic product came in at 5.2 per cent, in line with the advance estimate. Monetary policy is likely to stay supportive of growth, and at this juncture, the Overnight Policy Rate could remain at 2.75 per cent in 2026,” he said.
Dr Mohd Afzanizam added that ongoing fiscal consolidation is credit-positive and may draw further foreign inflows into Malaysian government bonds, reinforcing the currency’s trajectory.
The ringgit strengthened against the US dollar last week, closing at 4.1290/1345 from 4.1735/1775. It also gained against a basket of major currencies, rising versus the British pound, euro, and Japanese yen.
Regionally, the local note appreciated against ASEAN peers, including the Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, and Thai baht. - November 16, 2025