‘Even if there was mismanagement at Tabung Haji and the disclosure came through an RCI, they will still choose Umno-BN. The effect on BN will be very minimal.’
PETALING JAYA: The Tabung Haji Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) findings may influence voters’ perception of Barisan Nasional (BN), but analysts say they are unlikely to have a major impact on the Negeri Sembilan polls.
They said entrenched political loyalties and limited voter attention are likely to blunt any fallout, with any impact expected to be concentrated among urban Malays and voters in mixed constituencies.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities director Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said any impact would likely be concentrated among voters in western Negeri Sembilan.
“The disclosure will certainly affect BN, but only in the western part of the state, from Lenggeng, Seremban and Nilai to Port Dickson.
“These are more urbanised areas. Voters are relatively open-minded and pay attention to transparency and accountability,” he told theSun.
Mazlan said rural Malay voters in eastern districts were less likely to shift because many still valued Umno-BN leaders for their past contributions.
He said the durability of such loyalties had also been evident in previous controversies involving past administrations.
“Even if there was mismanagement at Tabung Haji and the disclosure came through an RCI, they will still choose Umno-BN. The effect on BN will be very minimal.
“Even after Najib (Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak) was convicted in the SRC International case and amid the 1MDB controversy, Umno supporters were still able to forgive him.”
The RCI report found that the minister held extensive powers under the Tabung Haji Act 1995, including over board appointments, investments and hibah (profit distributions).
The commission separately raised concerns over active politicians serving on TH’s board, cautioning that such appointments could create perceptions of political influence and affect the institution’s credibility.
It recommended barring serving politicians from holding the chairman or board member posts.
Mazlan said the findings could reinforce existing perceptions among politically attentive Malays because the weaknesses highlighted by the commission emerged during past administration.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)-Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said the report was unlikely to reach far beyond voters already engaged with political controversies.
“I do not think the average voter is really following this disclosure. It has become a politicised issue and the sentiment is already tied to political parties,” she said.
Syaza said BN loyalists were likely to overlook the findings, just as some continued supporting Najib despite the 1MDB scandal.
“Various reasons were given to support and justify what happened, and Najib still has his supporters.
“BN supporters will probably close one eye because ordinary people do not feel directly affected.”
She also said Pakatan Harapan (PH) could attract criticism, although voters could distinguish between events before 2018 and subsequent administrations, while some might associate the issue with PH.
“PH may also be affected when people ask why it is bringing this up now. Everyone may feel the impact because everyone has been in the government.”
Syaza said any dissatisfaction among Malay voters was more likely to be reflected in lower voter turnout than significant vote-switching, while support from Chinese and Indian voters would remain an important factor in mixed constituencies.
“With the election just around the corner, I do not expect this disclosure to have a major impact,” she said.
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