VICE President Sara Duterte formally announced her intention to run for the presidency almost 800 days before the May 2028 national elections. In her announcement, she asked forgiveness for the perceived failings of her erstwhile running mate, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who won by a landslide in the May 2022 polls. Her announcement came amid four impeachment complaints filed against her in the House of Representatives.
Filipinos would recall that prior to the campaign period for the May 2022 elections, a Pulse Asia survey conducted from Feb. 22 to March 2, 2021, showed Duterte leading with a 27-percent voter preference rating, compared with Marcos’ 13 percent and Grace Poe’s 12 percent. Despite her strong rating, she decided to yield to Marcos and run as his vice president due to her youth, funding and logistical issues, as well as prodding from Sen. Imee Marcos.
The timing of Duterte’s announcement made the embattled Marcos administration even more so, since it poured gasoline into the political fire engulfing the nation today with the flood-control corruption scandal and the ensuing mass protests. However, the impeachment complaints against her also put her presidential bid in the limelight, for better or worse, with accusations ranging from the embezzlement of intelligence funds and her death threats to the Marcos family, to alleged mismanagement during her stint as secretary of the Department of Education.
But public opinion is often strange. A Pulse Asia survey from Dec. 12 to 15, 2025, put the vice president’s approval rating at 56 percent, much higher than President Marcos’ 34 percent. The political unrest has shored up a shift toward Duterte. She retains solid grassroots support in the Visayas and Mindanao, owed largely to the political capital built by her populist and well-adored father, former president Rodrigo Duterte. Aside from wealthy donors open to bankrolling her campaign, Sara Duterte will be bolstered by the Chinese government amid the great rivalry among global powers intensifying in the region.
Yet, in the country’s political history, most presidential candidates who declared early bids tend to fizzle out before election day, with the notable exception of then-senator Joseph “Erap” Estrada, who turned an earlier campaign into a landslide victory in 1998. But to be fair to her, Sara Duterte’s context is entirely different from six or even 28 years ago. Her political star continues to soar as the Marcos administration continues to be besieged by widespread corruption, bureaucratic ineptitude and highly publicized heinous crimes.
Currently, there are calls for the Marcos administration and Liberal Party stalwarts to form a united front against Sara Duterte’s candidacy. But the current lineup from the opposition — Senators Bam Aquino, Risa Hontiveros or Kiko Pangilinan — has failed to excite cynical Filipino voters. Other potential administration candidates could not match the Duterte brand and mount a competitive campaign to counter Sara’s early lead. In fact, the perceived dark horse, broadcaster-turned-lawmaker Raffy Tulfo, has better chances. He is gaining popularity as a charismatic challenger who can give Sara Duterte a run for her money in 2028. In tandem with Naga Mayor Leni Robredo, the dynamic duo will be a formidable team to counter the vice president’s juggernaut drive toward the presidency.
Another factor that could tip the scales in Sara Duterte’s favor is Rodrigo Duterte’s International Criminal Court trial in The Hague, the Netherlands. Filipinos historically tend to rally behind those they perceive as persecuted or mistreated by higher officials. Were something tragic to happen to the former president in the months leading to May 2028, it would surely increase national sympathy for the Duterte family. This wave of support among grieving Filipinos could easily be translated into votes for Sara Duterte.
Sara Duterte’s presidential bid was not unexpected. Her candidacy will be supported by the millions who felt let down by the current administration and who once voted for his father. She has arguably the upper hand in national visibility, since the top officials allegedly involved in the flood-control corruption scandal have not yet been held accountable. As the saying goes, what is good for the goose should be good for the gander. In Sara Duterte’s case, the relentless persecution by her staunchest opponents will only galvanize her political base.
Sara Duterte’s chances of winning are not just plausible; they are already palpable without a strong contender. Unless the dynamic duo steps up, her presidential bid is shaping to be an unstoppable force in the country’s electoral history. But again, Philippine politics often works in very uncanny ways.
With despair often comes a presidential tandem who can sacrifice their personal interests to end graft and corruption, reignite people’s imagination and pave the way for a national renewal. And they will emerge at the most inauspicious moment before the campaign period for the 2028 elections begins.
