DURING his visit to the United Nations in New York this week, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a strong pitch for the Philippines to be elected to a nonpermanent seat on the UN Security Council. While we support the Philippines’ bid and recognize that it will be a bit of a boost to the country’s global reputation, especially during its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this year, we have to be realistic and acknowledge that gaining a UN Security Council seat is unlikely to have any positive impact beyond appearances.
The Security Council is, on paper, the most powerful UN body, charged with maintaining international peace and security. It can authorize the imposition of sanctions on countries violating the UN Charter and international law, authorize the use of force by UN members and create peacekeeping forces for conflict areas. There are 15 Security Council members: five permanent ones (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) with veto power, and 10 nonpermanent ones that are elected by the UN General Assembly for two-year terms. The next election, at which the Philippines is hoping to win a seat, will be on June 3.
The Philippines has served as a nonpermanent member in the council four times: in 1957, 1963, 1980-1981, and 2004-2005.
As for its chances of being elected to the Security Council seat, the consensus among UN observers is that the prospects are good. The Philippines, despite whatever internal problems it has faced through the years, is generally viewed as a model member of the UN. The long-running conflict between the Philippines and China over the West Philippine Sea may play a positive role, as most countries accept the 2016 ruling in favor of the Philippines by the arbitral tribunal at The Hague. On the other hand, Marcos’ strong public rejection of the notion that the Philippines might rejoin the International Criminal Court may be off-putting to some UN members. However, at this point it is not seen as enough to definitely ruin the Philippines’ odds of winning a Security Council seat.
The positive aspects of such a seat are mostly reputational, but they are not without some potential impact. As the Philippines is the Asean chairman this year, a council seat would not only boost the credibility of the Philippines in global discussions, but also the entire Asean. This will, perhaps, have the most significant effect in matters taken up by the UN General Assembly. Examples of some of these issues where the Philippines could, at least for the duration of its Security Council term, exercise greater influence are on climate action and development support for countries in the Global South.
On the other hand, except in rare instances where there is a shared universal perspective on an issue, the Philippines will have no real influence to prod the council to take action. This is because of the odd makeup of the council, which gives each of the five permanent members the power to unilaterally veto any proposed action. There have been calls for decades for this system to change, but it has not changed, which means that many actions that the council should take, such as stopping the war in Ukraine, the Israeli pogrom against the Palestinians, intervening in the war in Sudan, and, closer to home, enforcing the arbitral tribunal decision on the West Philippine Sea and dispatching peacekeepers to Myanmar, are blocked by one of the permanent members.
It has been suggested several times by the Department of Foreign Affairs and other officials that a seat on the council may help the Philippines resolve the ongoing dispute with China. That is virtually impossible, given China’s veto power, and it is a notion that should probably not feed the public, since it may raise unreasonable expectations. Even bringing up the matter at the council may harden China’s resolve, and make a compromise more difficult. Other issues that the Philippines may wish to take up, such as finding a way to quell the conflict in the Middle East — given that the Philippines has good relations with everyone involved, the US, Israel, Palestine and Iran, as well as the Gulf countries caught in the crossfire — are likely to be quashed by the US.
Nonetheless, a seat for the Philippines on the UN Security Council is still a good look for the country, so to speak, and there is no reason the Philippines should not have it. But expectations of its practical significance should definitely be kept to a minimum.
