ACCORDING to former United States Navy Indo-Pacific Command Cdr. Philip Scot Davidson, the reunification of Taiwan would be accomplished by China in 2027, the centennial of both the Communist Party of China and the People’s Liberation Army. This view has since been known as the Davidson Window. The admiral had taken care to clarify that he did not mean the actual breakout of hostilities but rather the status reached by China of being ready for such a breakout anytime it desired.
An overriding factor cited by Davidson in this regard was the scrapping by the Chinese legislature, the People’s National Congress, of the hitherto cap on presidential term limits of two consecutive five-year terms (10 years), initiated by Deng Xiaoping back in 1981 purposely to prevent long dictatorships like that of Mao Zedong. With the lifting of the presidential term limits now, President Xi Jinping has enjoyed continuous presidential terms of five years each since 2013. The Davidson Window regards this continuing Xi presidency as assurance of the continuity of China’s programmed military preparedness by 2027.
So, with that timeline just months away, will China go to war with the United States at long last?
What Davidson appeared most worried about was that the US naval capacity was well below that of China, 430 battleships against the US’ 291.
If the US must go to war with China over Taiwan, its cited deficit with China in naval capability must be overcome before 2027. The recent 121-page report submitted to the US Congress by Davidson’s successor, Adm. Samuel Paparo, betrays the equation hasn’t yet gone to that level. For this reason, it is with desperation that the report asks for the necessary funds to embark on logistics activities meant to overcome the US military preparedness deficit with China by 2027.
And yet, what no layman observer seems to realize is that for all its admission of America lagging much behind China in military preparedness, the Davidson Window is actually an effective, working military ploy already, achieving camouflaged results.
If only we come to think of it, of the five factors determining the question of defeat or victory in war, the US has been enjoying the undisputed advantage in terrain. Since the end of the Second World War and into the succeeding decades of the subsequent Cold War between democratic and socialist states, the US has not budged from its position of superiority over China militarily in Asia-Pacific. Witness its continuing strong alliances with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia.
In the case of the Philippines, the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 has stayed and over the decades has even spawned two more military treaties deepening appendage to America even more, the Visiting Forces Agreement of 1998 and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) of 2016. All these treaties have had the effect of reviving the Military Bases Agreement (MBA) of 1947, which was scrapped by the Senate Magnificent 12 in 1991 by killing the Senate resolution which would have extended the MBA for 10 more years.
Thus are to this day Fort Magsaysay in Nueva Ecija, Basa Air Base in Pampanga, Lumbia Air Base in Cagayan de Oro, Ebuen-Mactan Air Base in Cebu and Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan.
At the start of the President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration in 2022, four more EDCA sites were granted America: Camp Melchor de la Cruz in Gamu, Isabela; La-lo Airport in La-lo, Cagayan, Camilo Osias Naval Base in Santa Ana, Cagayan; and Balabac Island in Palawan.
It would seem the site of conflict between China and the US is the South China Sea region, quite adjacent to China.
What does this indicate?
That in the event of an actual military clash, China alone is the most prone to destruction.
The US is well-ensconced in the Western Hemisphere, continuously cradled by the Monroe Doctrine, the cardinal fiat for making sure that no war whatsoever reaches American shores.
The world is witness to the fact that wars have come and gone but none has ever touched mainland America.
By sheer dint of geography, China is immediately disadvantaged in terms of terrain. America is thousands of miles away safe across the Pacific while China is right in the midst of the action the minute it breaks out.
The Davidson Window must realize this. All this talk about China having outdistanced America in military preparedness are diversionary war propaganda stuff. Having seized the advantage of terrain, the US is out to score real big once the Taiwan flash point gets out of hand.
But President Xi must have an ace up his sleeve to have dared warn US President Donald Trump in their latest summit to avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap. He must realize early on that America’s terrain advantage is on conventional war criteria. We are into the nuclear age when thousands of miles are instantly rendered a matter of minutes. Particularly in the case of China’s DF 41 and DF 5C, they are reputed to be able to strike targets in the US just some 20–30 minutes after firing from mainland China.
So, what terrain advantage are we talking about?
Goes this one account: “Historical and contemporary examples demonstrate how China has put the spirit of self-reliance into practice:
“The Nanniwan Production Campaign in 1941 which saw Mao Zedong deploying the 359th Brigade of the Eighth Route Army, which together with civilians using basic hand tools converted [the] barren, mountainous gorge of Nanniwan, Shaanxi province into fertile productive domains for large-scale food and clothing production, effectively overcoming the devastating dual economic blockade by both the Imperial Japanese Army and Nationalist (Kuomintang) forces.”
On high-tech weaponry, following the ideological fallout between Beijing and Moscow in 1960, the Soviet Union abruptly withdrew thousands of technical experts, tore up hundreds of contracts and cut off scientific aid, leaving China completely isolated from both the Western capitalist bloc and the Eastern communist camp.
One account puts the matter thus: “Stranded in a severe economic and technological vacuum, China doubled down on Zili Gengsheng to secure its national defense. Thousands of Chinese scientists retreated to isolated deserts and secret facilities to work without external blueprints or foreign computational equipment. Against all odds, China successfully developed its first atomic bomb (1964), hydrogen bomb (1967) and satellite (1970) — a breakthrough collectively celebrated as the ‘Two Bombs, One Satellite’ (Liangdan Yixing) project.”
From whichever angle you view it, China is very well-equipped. It must be utterly wrong for the Davidson Window to even think of constricting China in battle within its own vulnerable backyard.
The Taiwan flash point does not work in isolation from the Ukraine crisis, neither from the Gaza conflict nor from the Iranian ever-lengthening unwinnability by the United States.
In all these world war phenomena, China’s presence is ever prominent, heavily decisive.
How could the Davidson Window limit its vistas only to Taiwan and 2027?
America’s decline is inevitable.
It has been said, in eight of 12 cases, the Thucydides Trap — in which a rising power ousts a ruling power — has been proven true.
Make that 13-9 now.