Oil markets certainly believe. They're down again as the Strait of Hormuz gets set to reopen. But it's only a 60-day Memorandum of Understanding. And while Gulf neighbours will cheer the lifting of the blockade on what's the world's biggest maritime choke point for oil and gas, we take a second look at the agreement brokered by Pakistan and Qatar – most notably, the inclusion of a cessation of fighting in Lebanon.
What happens if Israel or Hezbollah don't like the way negotiations unfold? Would Washington and Tehran be able to rein them in? How does the US president's plan compare with the 2015 UN nuclear agreement that he constantly belittles? Are we headed for closure or a whole new level of uncertainty?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Juliette Brown, Charles Wente.
