SEOUL, Feb 1 — South Korea’s economy inched toward its first recession in three years as data today showed its January trade deficit soared to a record thanks to a plunge in exports caused by a combination of long holidays and cooling global demand.
Asia’s fourth-largest economy, which relies heavily on trade for growth, shrank by 0.4 per cent in the October-December quarter and is now on the brink of falling into what would be its first recession since the middle of 2020 during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Exports fell 16.6 per cent in January from a year earlier, trade ministry data showed, worse than an 11.3 per cent decline predicted in a Reuters survey and the fastest drop in exports since May 2020.
Imports fell 2.6 per cent compared with a year earlier, less than a 3.6 per cent drop predicted in the survey. As a result, the country posted a monthly trade deficit of US$12.69 billion (RM54.1 billion), setting a record amount for any month.
“I have a zero per cent forecast for the first-quarter growth but today’s trade figures are definitely a minus to that,” said Park Sang-hyun, economist at HI Investment and Securities.
The increasing chances of recession — two consecutive quarters of decline in gross domestic product — also underscore growing bets in markets that the central bank’s campaign of raising interest rates since late 2021 has run its course.
Leading the sluggish trade performance in January were a 44.5 per cent dive in semiconductor exports and a whopping 31.4 per cent plunge in sales to China, the trade ministry data showed.
Both were the worst rates of decline since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
South Korean bond yields fell across the board on the growing bets for a less restrictive monetary policy ahead, while stock and currency investors largely shrugged off the monthly figures.
Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho blamed long lunar New Year holidays in China and a steep fall in computer chip prices versus a year ago for the sharp declines in export values, adding China’s reopening would help ease the situation over time.
“The government will mobilise all available policy resources to help support a drive to boost exports so that the timing of improvement in trade balance can be advanced,” Choo said at a meeting of trade-related officials, without elaborating.
The government has forecast this year’s exports would fall 4.5 per cent after posting a 6.1 per cent gain in 2022, and the trade ministry has said it would do what it can to avert a decline. — Reuters