A RECENT roundtable discussion (RTD) on alternative approaches to curbing illegal firearms has renewed scrutiny on the continued circulation of unlicensed weapons in the country, with stakeholders warning that existing enforcement measures have not significantly reduced gun violence, particularly in conflict-affected areas in Mindanao and the Bangsamoro region.
The dialogue gathered representatives from the Philippine National Police (PNP), local government units, civil society groups, international development partners, and security experts to reassess current strategies and explore new policy directions to address illicit firearms proliferation.
Advocacy manager Deanne Capiral of Climate Conflict Action (CCA) said the forum aimed to deepen understanding of gun violence patterns and illegal firearms circulation, while identifying potential policy responses.
Capiral outlined four key objectives: mapping the national situation on illegal firearms and gun violence; reviewing existing interventions; building consensus on solutions; and contributing to efforts addressing the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) decommissioning process under the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.
She said the discussion also sought to expose gaps in current approaches, including long-standing issues in Mindanao’s peace process, particularly the stalled MILF decommissioning program.
CCA said the push for new pathways is driven by three key concerns.
First, despite government efforts to recover and regulate firearms, gun violence continues to claim lives and undermine security in several regions.
Second, MILF decommissioning remains stalled following what participants described as a unilateral suspension, leaving a key peace mechanism incomplete and armed actors outside the full reach of Republic Act (RA) 10591, or the Comprehensive Firearms and Ammunition Regulation Act.
Third, participants noted that while legal frameworks exist, enforcement gaps and inconsistent implementation continue to limit their effectiveness.
Studies cited during the discussion estimated that civilian-held firearms in the country rose from about 2.8 million in 2010 to 3.77 million in 2017.
Illegal firearms were estimated at 1.9 million in 2010, increasing to about 2.04 million in 2017, indicating continued growth alongside licensed weapons.
PNP data showed over 165,000 firearms were recovered or confiscated from 2015 to 2023, though participants noted this remains a small fraction of total estimated circulation.
UN Comtrade data cited in earlier research also recorded more than 292,000 firearms imported between 2000 and 2010, with volumes reportedly doubling in the following decade, raising concerns on monitoring and end-use tracking.
Data presented during the RTD showed 10,936 gun-related incidents from 2022 to the first quarter of 2024, averaging about 13 incidents daily.
Senate figures cited in the discussion indicated that around 99 percent of gun-related crimes involve illegal firearms, reinforcing concerns over unregistered weapons as the dominant instrument of violence.
In the Bangsamoro region, conflict monitoring data showed a rise in gun-related incidents starting in 2018, with elevated levels sustained in subsequent years.
Civilians accounted for the largest share of both victims and suspects, while firearms were involved in about 77 percent of conflict-related deaths in the region.
Illegal firearms were identified as a major driver of fatalities in Bangsamoro conflict incidents from 2020 to 2023, alongside other causes such as drug-related violence.
Speakers also cited political and electoral cycles as recurring triggers, with firearms often circulating through black markets during periods of heightened competition.
Despite major milestones such as the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, data presented showed average deaths from armed incidents between 2018 and 2023 were higher than those recorded from 2011 to 2016.
Participants said this raises concerns on whether current disarmament and decommissioning mechanisms are effectively translating peace agreements into sustained reductions in violence.
Incidents involving MILF-affiliated actors also reportedly increased from 2011 to 2023, with firearms consistently central to fatalities.
Experts pointed to fragmentation in firearms tracking systems as a key challenge.
The PNP maintains a Captured, Confiscated, Surrendered, Deposited, Abandoned and Forfeited inventory, while the Armed Forces of the Philippines rely on a Captured, Confiscated, Surrendered and Recovered system.
These databases are not fully integrated, creating gaps in national-level firearms accounting.
RA 10591 provides the legal framework for firearms regulation, but inconsistent reporting and lack of consolidated data were cited as weakening its implementation.
Programs such as the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program also reflect partial outputs rather than complete national inventories.
Local recoveries, such as surrendered firearms in parts of Mindanao, remain unlinked to a centralized system, while earlier estimates placed loose firearms in Sulu alone at around 28,000.
A significant focus was placed on the MILF decommissioning process.
While about 26,000 combatants have reportedly been decommissioned as of 2024, only around 4,000 firearms have been turned in, raising concerns over the gap between reintegration and weapons recovery.
Participants also cited delays in firearm destruction, limited transparency in inventories and the constrained role of the PNP as the central firearms authority under RA 10591.
International obligations under the UN Program of Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons, and the Arms Trade Treaty were also raised, particularly on tracing, recording and timely destruction of surrendered weapons.
Stakeholders agreed that a single national framework for firearms data, because consolidating records of confiscated, surrendered and recovered firearms across agencies is essential to accurately assess progress and strengthen governance.
Without a centralized system, government efforts will continue to produce fragmented snapshots rather than a complete picture of the firearms problem.