SHARE prices could be range-bound this week as investors weigh weaker economic growth prospects against persistent inflation pressures and tighter liquidity conditions heading into the fourth quarter, analysts said.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended last week at 5,825.97, up 1.67 percent on Friday but still down 0.51 percent for the week. It fell to a new 2026 low of 5,730.02 on Thursday before bargain-hunting in large-cap shares provided a lift.
Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said the PSEi could remain within the 5,500-to-6,000 range as economic hurdles persist, with investors watching the September inflation outlook and signals from the United States Federal Reserve (Fed).
The brokerage noted that S&P Global and the Asian Development Bank had slashed their Philippine growth forecasts for 2026 to 2.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively, from their previous estimates of 4.1 percent and 3.8 percent.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial Inc., said the market continued to carry a negative bias despite valuations having reached bargain levels.
“As of Friday last week, the local market is trading with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3x. This is below its last 5-years’ average of 14.4x, implying that the market is still at bargain levels,” Tantiangco said.
He added that the bearish case remained strong, however, as global markets and local macroeconomic conditions continued to weigh on equities.
Inflation is expected to remain a key concern as elevated oil prices, a weak peso and rising inflation expectations add pressure to consumer prices. Tantiangco also cited risks to food supply from the upcoming El Niño as another factor investors would monitor.
The peso improved last week but remained at weak levels, while rising global and local Treasury yields continued to make fixed-income securities more attractive relative to equities, Tantiangco said.
2TradeAsia similarly expects investors to favor dollar-earning companies, particularly ports and infrastructure firms, as well as large-cap banks that could benefit from higher interest rates supporting margins.
Liquidity could also become more competitive this week as the government prepares to offer around P30 billion in retail Treasury bonds from Sept. 29 to Oct. 7, while Mynt Inc., operator of GCash, is set to finalize the pricing of its initial public offering on Oct. 1.
2TradeAsia said the P2.85-billion net foreign buying on Friday could partly reflect quarter-end window-dressing, after foreign investors had been net sellers in the preceding weeks.
Investors will also watch the US nonfarm payrolls report due on Oct. 2 for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ inflation outlook, due sometime this week, will be closely monitored for indications of possible policy tightening.
For the PSEi, Tantiangco placed immediate support at 5,800, which could be tested this week, and resistance at 6,000.
