MORE than two months into the volatile Iran-US war, permanent and temporary migration to the Five favorite DestiNations for Filipinos — Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and the US — mirrors how the ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must proceed: carefully, ready for unannounced, expensive fees, and always in danger of being held captive.
Before Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US bombardment, the average number of navigating ships was over 100 a day.
As of April 29–30, 2026, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to an exceptionally low level, with only about 5 to 14 commercial vessels passing per day, per CNN and Andalou Agency reports.
On April 24, Reuters reported, “only five ships pass through Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours Friday, after Iran seized two container ships this week and the US continues to blockade Iranian ports.”
“For most shipping companies, they will need a stable ceasefire and assurances from both sides of the conflict that the Strait of Hormuz is safe to transit,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco.
“In the meantime, shipping will be restricted to using routes close to Iran and Oman. Due to their confined nature, these routes cannot safely accommodate the normal volumes of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,” Larsen added.
Toxic ceasefire
A tenuous ceasefire and mutual blockades have been acknowledged and enforced by both sides since April 8, with no new negotiations scheduled.
Since then, however, Tehran has continued to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships in the strait.
The essential toxic demand revolves around Iran’s nuclear program and capabilities to develop nuclear weapons, effect regime change so that Iran “can’t continue to arm, fund or direct terrorist armies outside its borders.”
Meanwhile, faced with a May 1 deadline “to secure congressional approval for the US-Israel war,” the Trump administration says consent no longer matters because a) the US has achieved total, complete victory; and b) hostilities have terminated.
How about the migration passageways?
Australia’s migration
stalemate and ad hoc changes
The Albanese administration confirmed that its 2025–2026 permanent migration program target remains at 185,000, a 10,000 decrease from its 2022–2024 levels.
Meanwhile, admission of temporary migrants, including international students, got an unexpected announcement from the Australian government.
Citing the Migration Amendment (2026 Measures No. 1) Act 2026, the immigration minister said it can now issue an “Arrival Control Determination to pause the entry of entire classes of temporary visa holders for up to 12 months.”
Fees for passage
Successive visa fee increases now tag Australia as the “world’s costliest destination for international students.”
In July 2025, the Australian government increased the student visa application fee from AU$710 to AU$1,600. Since last month, that amount has increased to AU$2,000.
Graduate visa fees increased to $4,600, and savings requirement is at least $29,710. Plus, there is a bar to apply for a post-study work visa for anyone over 35.
Another nail in the coffin for international education is removing the opportunity for an oral hearing when student visa applications are refused.
“Since 16 March 2026, the Administrative Review Tribunal decides student visa refusal reviews on the papers... applicants will not get an oral hearing. No chance to sit across from a member, answer questions in person, or clear up confusion face-to-face.”
As a salve to these financial requirements, Australia has increased the limit of international students to be admitted this year, up 295,000 from the planned 270,000 in 2025.
Faced with a similar public outcry about international students causing housing shortages and competing with locals for finite job opportunities, Canada announced a 10 percent reduction in the number of study permits to be issued to 408,000, a 7 percent decrease from the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 — and an admissions target of only 155,000 new international students in 2026.
In addition, from January 2025, the Canadian government:
– Requires international students to include a new valid provincial or territorial attestation letter (PAL/TAL) before applying for a study permit extension.
– Restricted open work permits to spouses of students enrolled in masteral, doctoral and select programs in health care, education, or engineering.
– Increased the amount of money a student must show to maintain student status from CA$20,635 to CA$22,895.
– Limited the ability to work full-time during the post-graduate work permit period to those enrolled in specific fields of studies that include agriculture and agri-food, education, transport, health care and social services.
Pathway from student to residency
The Canadian government views international students as prime candidates for permanent residency (PR), often prioritizing those with Canadian education and work experience.
Of late, however, Canada seeks to “regain control of its immigration system to restore balance and sustainability while continuing to attract and retain the world’s best talents, including international students.”
Australia, on the other hand, is tightening student visa regulations to prioritize high-quality education and genuine skilled migration, rather than using studies merely as a pathway to residency. In addition, the government requires student visa applicants to comply with the “genuine temporary entrant (GTE)” requirement, an integrity measure for Australian student visas (subclass 500) that confirms applicants genuinely intend to stay temporarily for study, not solely for migration.
Getting a job offer and work experience are important factors that add to a student/graduate’s ability to pursue permanent residency. Students in either country can work up to 24 hours while studying. However, Canada offers an option to work full-time (up to 3 years) after completing studies.
Notes:
– Canadian educational institutions ranking: #21 — University of Toronto / #37 University of Melbourne.
– PR Application cost, Australia — Temporary Residence Transition stream (Subclass 187) for skilled workers, who are nominated by their employer in regional Australia, to live and work in Australia permanently.
Is there a silver lining for intending students to either country?
Yes. Australia’s round-trip ticket is cheaper: P25,217 to Sydney, Australia, compared to P76,209 to Vancouver, Canada.
That’s like Strait talk: pay up and wait, to which Popeye would reply, “Shiver me timbers.”
