Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], June 17 (ANI): Strengthening El Nino conditions and a delayed southwest monsoon have started weighing on India’s kharif crop season, with sowing activity falling below last year’s levels, particularly in pulses and oilseeds, according to an ICICI Bank Research report.
The report flagged rising weather-related risks to the agricultural season, saying, “El Nino conditions have gotten stronger recently with relative index crossing threshold level and pointing towards further increase. Notably, IMD had revised its rainfall forecast lower."
According to the report, kharif sowing as of June 12 stood at 8.5 million hectares, down 3.9 per cent from 8.8 million hectares during the corresponding period last year, as deficient rainfall in key farming regions affected planting activity.
“Kharif sowing (12 June 2026) is down by 3.9% YoY led by drop in pulses and oilseeds. However, sowing of paddy and coarse cereals is better placed," the report said.
The sharpest decline has been seen in pulses, where acreage contracted 43.2 per cent year-on-year. The report attributed the fall primarily to lower sowing of arhar, moong and urad. Cotton acreage also declined by nearly 28 per cent compared with the same period last year.
The report said the weak sowing trend comes amid a sluggish start to the monsoon season.
“Monsoon is off to a slow start at 35% below normal led by Central (61% below LPA) and East India (43% below LPA) while Northwest (5% above LPA) and South (14% below LPA) have done better," it said.
The report noted that rainfall distribution has remained uneven across regions, with major agrarian states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar recording deficient rainfall so far this season.
However, the report pointed out that not all crop segments have been affected equally. Rice acreage was up 28.4 per cent year-on-year, while coarse cereals acreage rose 10.4 per cent, helping offset some of the weakness seen in pulses and cotton.
The report also highlighted a key support factor for the farm sector despite the weak start to the monsoon.
“All India reservoirs storage is 28% of capacity, lower than last year’s 30% but above long period average of 24% which should mitigate the impact of lower rainfall to some extent," it said.
According to the report, reservoir levels remain higher than the long-term average, which could help reduce stress on agriculture if rainfall improves in the coming weeks.
The report further noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral and is expected to stay so, while rainfall activity is likely to strengthen as the monsoon progresses.
“Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory and is expected to remain so. Overall, monsoon is expected to gain pace in coming days given IMD projected rainfall at 92% of LPA for June," the report added. (ANI)
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