Taiwan is on course to be the fastest-growing economy in Asia this year, with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasting real GDP growth of 11.0% in 2026 on the back of surging global demand for AI chips and servers. China, by contrast, fails to make the top 10.
The figure puts Taiwan 2.1 percentage points ahead of second-placed Kyrgyzstan in a ranking of 18 selected Asian economies, compiled by the data publisher Visual Capitalist from ADB forecasts. Across developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole, the Manila-based lender expects real growth of 5.0% this year.
AI Chip Exports Drive Taiwan To The Top
The ADB tied Taiwan's performance directly to the global AI investment boom. Soaring demand for semiconductors and other technology products has lifted the island's exports, the bank said, with AI-related orders from the United States playing an especially important role.
Taiwan is home to the world's most advanced chipmaking and supplies much of the hardware behind the AI buildout, from processors to the servers that house them. That position has turned overseas spending on AI infrastructure into an export windfall large enough to move the whole economy.
The Full Ranking Of 18 Asian Economies
The ADB's 2026 real GDP growth forecasts, from highest to lowest:
- 1. Taiwan: 11.0%
- 2. Kyrgyzstan: 8.9%
- 3. Vietnam: 7.8%
- 4. Tajikistan: 7.0%
- 5. Uzbekistan: 7.0%
- 6. India: 7.0%
- 7. Bhutan: 6.5%
- 8. Georgia: 6.3%
- 9. Turkmenistan: 6.3%
- 10. Mongolia: 5.74%
- 11. Indonesia: 5.2%
- 12. Armenia: 5.0%
- 13. Singapore: 5.0%
- 14. Malaysia: 4.9%
- 15. Kazakhstan: 4.8%
- 16. China: 4.6%
- 17. Hong Kong: 4.2%
- 18. Sri Lanka: 4.0%
China, the region's largest economy, sits 16th with 4.6% growth, ahead of only Hong Kong and Sri Lanka in the group.
Vietnam, India And Central Asia Follow Different Engines
Behind Taiwan, the sources of growth vary widely. Vietnam's projected 7.8% expansion rests on manufacturing, exports, and domestic demand, according to the ADB. India is forecast to grow 7% in the 2026/27 fiscal year, supported by investment demand and solid exports of services.
In Central Asia, the ADB expects Kyrgyzstan to grow 8.9% and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan 7.0% each, reflecting a combination of fixed investment, private consumption, services, and industrial activity. Indonesia's 5.2% forecast underlines how much Southeast Asia's largest economy depends on household spending, and points to a continuing shift in economic weight across the region.
ADB Warns Taiwan's Traditional Industries Are Missing Out
The bank also flagged risks to the outlook, including an escalation of geopolitical conflicts, tighter financial conditions, trade uncertainty, and the El Niño weather pattern.
For Taiwan specifically, the ADB cautioned that the gains are concentrated. The AI boom is mainly lifting semiconductors and other technology industries, while traditional manufacturers such as textile and plastics makers have benefited very little. Narrowing that gap, the bank said, is a challenge Taiwan will have to confront.
