KOTA BELUD: The Tempasuk seat is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested seats in the 17th state election, according to political analyst Dr Kanul Gindol.
“It is a hot seat with five major political parties eyeing the constituency that could determine the political future of incumbent Datuk Mohd Arsad Bistari of GRS,” said Kanul in a statement, Monday.
The possible multi-cornered fight could see the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Barisan Nasional (BN), Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), Warisan and Pakatan Harapan (PH) all fielding candidates.
Kanul said leading contenders include Datuk Baharul Sawi for BN, KDM’s John Samud or Dr Rimin Maun and State PKR Chief Datuk Mustapha Sakmud. Warisan has yet to indicate its candidate.
Kanul believes the constituency’s unique demographic composition with 17,000 registered voters split roughly equally between Bajau and Dusun communities will be important to determine the outcome.
“The result can tilt either way,” said Kanul, noting that Bajau voters are concentrated in Taun Gusi, Linau and Gunding areas, while Dusun voters dominate Rosok, Bangkahak and Tempasuk.
He predicts that vote-splitting among Bajau candidates could leave the Dusun community as kingmakers, with victory likely going to whichever candidate can secure the strongest cross-ethnic appeal.
Incumbent Arshad faces a significant test after switching from his 2020 winning Umno/BN ticket to GRS. In the previous election, he secured 4,040 votes with a commanding 1,685-vote majority over independent candidate Musbah Jamli.
BN’s Baharul Sawi, a former political secretary to Datuk Salleh Said, represents a fresh alternative that could appeal to younger Umno supporters who feel “betrayed” by Arshad’s party switch, according to Kanul.
Kanul expects an intense grassroots campaign featuring the traditional mix of ceramah rallies, personal engagement and community gatherings that have historically characterised Tempasuk politics.
“Every night, food and drinks are transported to Dusun villages where political discussions continue late into the evening,” Kanul recalled from the 2020 campaign, predicting similar community-centred campaigning this time around.
With all parties still building momentum in the constituency, Kanul noted that surprises including potential alliance shifts remain possible before nomination day, making Tempasuk one of the most unpredictable battlegrounds in the coming state election.
“It is a hot seat with five major political parties eyeing the constituency that could determine the political future of incumbent Datuk Mohd Arsad Bistari of GRS,” said Kanul in a statement, Monday.
The possible multi-cornered fight could see the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), Barisan Nasional (BN), Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), Warisan and Pakatan Harapan (PH) all fielding candidates.
Kanul said leading contenders include Datuk Baharul Sawi for BN, KDM’s John Samud or Dr Rimin Maun and State PKR Chief Datuk Mustapha Sakmud. Warisan has yet to indicate its candidate.
Kanul believes the constituency’s unique demographic composition with 17,000 registered voters split roughly equally between Bajau and Dusun communities will be important to determine the outcome.
“The result can tilt either way,” said Kanul, noting that Bajau voters are concentrated in Taun Gusi, Linau and Gunding areas, while Dusun voters dominate Rosok, Bangkahak and Tempasuk.
He predicts that vote-splitting among Bajau candidates could leave the Dusun community as kingmakers, with victory likely going to whichever candidate can secure the strongest cross-ethnic appeal.
Incumbent Arshad faces a significant test after switching from his 2020 winning Umno/BN ticket to GRS. In the previous election, he secured 4,040 votes with a commanding 1,685-vote majority over independent candidate Musbah Jamli.
BN’s Baharul Sawi, a former political secretary to Datuk Salleh Said, represents a fresh alternative that could appeal to younger Umno supporters who feel “betrayed” by Arshad’s party switch, according to Kanul.
Kanul expects an intense grassroots campaign featuring the traditional mix of ceramah rallies, personal engagement and community gatherings that have historically characterised Tempasuk politics.
“Every night, food and drinks are transported to Dusun villages where political discussions continue late into the evening,” Kanul recalled from the 2020 campaign, predicting similar community-centred campaigning this time around.
With all parties still building momentum in the constituency, Kanul noted that surprises including potential alliance shifts remain possible before nomination day, making Tempasuk one of the most unpredictable battlegrounds in the coming state election.