WORLD War II may have turned parts of Manila to rubble, resulted in the massive loss of Filipino lives and was the environment that produced mind-boggling testaments to cruelty such as the Death March and Japanese garrisons. In the aftermath of the war, however, came the proclamation of Philippine independence, the post-war economic boom and the great promises held for our young republic. Light after the darkness.
It was much more glorious in the broader world.
Learning from the harsh impositions and deeply harbored resentments that resulted from the Treaty of Versailles that was signed after World War I, the United States, the lead country of the victors in the Second World War, funded the most magnanimous post-war reconstruction program in history and it was for the war losers led by Germany.
The Marshall Plan, as the program was known, helped lift the Europe-based war losers from their prostrate status to post-war prosperity. Germany would not have become Europe’s biggest economy if it were not for the Marshall Plan.
The war’s aftermath led to Pax Americana, broader post-war prosperity, greater economic integration and surging global trade based on scaled-down tariffs. Despite the debacle of US imperial ambitions in Vietnam and the Latin Americas, much of the world committed to the bedrock doctrines of liberal democracy and enjoyed both peace and economic progress. To some historians, the curtailment of fascism was that war’s most significant victory.
So, why is the US-Iran negotiations to end the Gulf war, which started with the Feb. 28 decision of the US and Israel to bomb Iran “back to Stone Age” on that day leaving a bitter, hollow aftertaste across the board? Why is the US, the principal actor and initiator of the Gulf war, not celebrating? Why are the Philippines and other Asian countries whose dependence on Gulf oil and fertilizer had made them major economic casualties of that war not expressing real relief over the end of the war? Why is much of the world feeling down and miserable even with the Geneva talks going on?
The lack of celebration in the US was summed up by the Atlantic magazine, with these key paragraphs:
“The US has very little to celebrate. (US President Donald) Trump and his team just lost a war to a militarily mediocre — but nonetheless extremely dangerous — adversary. Trump has failed to achieve even one of the goals he put forward for this war of choice and now he is determined to sign, seal and deliver America’s capitulation as quickly as possible.
The reality is the war will close with the regime intact and in the grip of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps; the Strait of Hormuz will remain under the threat of Iranian attacks; Iran will continue to possess drone and missile stocks; the regime will continue to be a state sponsor of terror; and many sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars in unfrozen assets will flow to Iran.”
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran’s arch-enemy, called the deal “catastrophic capitulation.” On top of Trump’s surrender, the US will help create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran and lift all economic sanctions.
American achievements? Zero. No regime change in Iran. No unconditional surrender. No permanent halt to Iran’s nuclear program. No immediate destruction of its nuclear infrastructure.
Asian countries badly hit by the Gulf war with the Philippines on the top of the list because of its 80 percent dependence on Gulf oil and its heavy dependence on inorganic fertilizer from the area, cannot even express some sort of guarded optimism. The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that even with the end of the war this month, even with the calibrated flow of oil carriers across the Strait of Hormuz factored in, it will take about a year for the oil prices to go down to pre-Feb. 28 levels. The Gulf war, though brief, was called the “greatest oil supply shock” in history. Even major oil producers had to deplete their huge oil reserves during the war to shore up the crippled global supply.
Iran’s tight grip over all vessel activity in the Strait is a fact of life and there is no guarantee that it will allow the toll-free passage of oil tankers bound for Asia, including the Philippines. What if the Iranian mullahs decide to impose a levy on ships traversing the Hormuz? What if there are fresh externalities that will make Trump or the mullahs renege on the terms of the peace agreement?
What if Netanyahu goes rogue and sabotage the fragile peace through the continuous bombing of Lebanon?
That the April 2026 remittance from overseas Filipinos was recorded as the “lowest growth level in four years” is without doubt another negative impact of the war. After the Feb. 28 bombings, the repatriation of scores of Filipino OFWs in Israel and the Gulf areas started. Those forced to stop working but refused repatriation just stayed in their host countries, waiting for new jobs in less dangerous areas. Even Filipinos in the US who send in about 40 percent of total money sent to the home country, were affected by inflation and higher gas prices, thus crimping on their remittances. The Gulf war was the great dampener of overseas remittances.
The Gulf war was a senseless one and was waged because of one man’s megalomania and hubris. No wonder that even after the signing of a memorandum of understanding to end the war, there was only universally shared despondency and zero celebration.
