THE most interesting number in the recent Tangere survey is not the 67 percent who support Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian’s appointment as Senate president pro tempore. Neither is it the 61 percent who recognize Sen. Erwin Tulfo as the legitimate head of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee. Nor is it the 62 percent who reject the allegations made by a group claiming to be former Marines.
The most important number is 38.
That is the percentage of respondents who identified themselves as supporters of Vice President Sara Duterte and former president Rodrigo Duterte. At first glance, this appears to be encouraging news for the Duterte camp. Thirty-eight percent remains a formidable political base.
It is the largest single political bloc identified in the survey, larger than the 28 percent who described themselves as politically neutral, the 18 percent who aligned with the Liberal Party and the 16 percent who identified with the Marcos administration.
In a fragmented political environment such as the Philippines, a candidate entering a presidential contest with a loyal 38-percent base is automatically competitive. Yet surveys often reveal more than their headlines. A closer look at the numbers suggests that the 38 percent may represent not only Sara Duterte’s strength but also the limits of her current political coalition.
The first clue lies in the survey’s findings regarding Gatchalian. The survey found that 67 percent support his appointment as Senate president pro tempore, while only 25 percent oppose it. According to the survey narrative, opposition is concentrated among Duterte supporters. If Duterte supporters comprise 38 percent of respondents, why does opposition register only 25 percent?
The answer is politically significant. Not all Duterte supporters oppose Gatchalian. Some support his appointment, while others remain undecided. This suggests that even within the Duterte constituency, there is recognition that the Senate cannot remain trapped indefinitely in political paralysis. Many appear more interested in restoring institutional functionality than sustaining a factional standoff.
The same pattern emerges in the dispute over the leadership of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee. The survey found that 61 percent of respondents believe Erwin Tulfo has the legitimate claim to lead the committee, while only 30 percent support Pia Cayetano. Again, support for Cayetano is strongest among Duterte-aligned respondents. Yet if the Duterte bloc accounts for 38 percent of respondents, why does Cayetano attract only 30-percent support?
The arithmetic suggests that not all Duterte supporters are following the Cayetano position. Some appear willing to recognize Tulfo’s claim, while others remain unconvinced. More importantly, Tulfo has attracted support from administration supporters, Robredo supporters and politically neutral respondents. That is the kind of coalition that wins national elections because it extends beyond partisan loyalty and taps into a broader perception of legitimacy.
The survey’s findings regarding the group claiming to be former Marines are even more revealing. Their allegations have generated considerable political attention, yet the survey found that 62 percent of Filipinos do not believe them, while only 25 percent find their claims credible. If Duterte supporters represent 38 percent of respondents and are the constituency most receptive to these allegations, then a substantial portion of Duterte supporters themselves must still harbor doubts. Otherwise, belief in the allegations would be much higher.
This matters because political narratives succeed only when they persuade audiences beyond one’s core supporters. A movement can survive criticism from its opponents. It becomes vulnerable when it struggles to persuade even those inclined to be sympathetic. The survey suggests that the Duterte camp is encountering precisely this problem.
The most consequential figure in the survey may therefore be the 28 percent who identify as politically neutral. These voters are not anchored to a political dynasty or party. They are the constituency that often determines electoral outcomes. According to the survey, these neutral respondents sided with Gatchalian, recognized Tulfo’s claim to the Blue Ribbon Committee and expressed skepticism toward the Marines’ allegations. In other words, they are not currently gravitating toward the Duterte narrative.
This should concern anyone evaluating Sara Duterte’s prospects for 2028. Presidential elections are not won simply by retaining one’s base. They are won by expanding beyond it. The challenge for any presidential aspirant is to transform a loyal constituency into a governing coalition. The survey suggests that Sara Duterte’s supporters remain loyal, but there is little evidence that the coalition is expanding.
Viewed alongside other recent surveys, the implications become clearer. OCTA Research has found strong public support for an impeachment trial against Sara Duterte, while recent polling has shown alternative political coalitions becoming increasingly competitive. A hypothetical Leni Robredo-Raffy Tulfo tandem has even edged out a Sara Duterte-Imee Marcos pairing in one national survey.
Perhaps the most intriguing development is the growing strength of the Tulfo brand. Unlike traditional opposition figures whose appeal is often confined to specific sectors, the Tulfos appear capable of attracting support across political divides. They appeal to administration supporters, politically neutral voters and even segments of the Duterte constituency. That makes them potentially formidable competitors because they are assembling precisely the kind of broad coalition that presidential campaigns require.
None of this means that Sara Duterte is politically finished. Far from it. A 38-percent base remains a powerful political asset and guarantees that she will remain a major player in Philippine politics. The mistake would be to interpret that figure as evidence of inevitability. The survey instead suggests a political movement that remains strong but is struggling to broaden its appeal beyond its core constituency.
This is why the most important number in the Tangere survey is not 67, 61 or 62. Those figures describe specific controversies and personalities. The number 38 tells a larger story. It represents both the enduring strength and the potential limitation of the Duterte political project. As the country moves closer to 2028, the central question may not be whether Sara Duterte can keep her supporters. The evidence suggests she can. The more important question is whether she can break through the ceiling that those supporters currently represent.
The author is a professor at the University of the Philippines Los Baños and vice chairman of the board of the state-run PTV Network Inc.
