The parliamentary system requires political parties with a vast grassroots network, a political ideology and a commitment to the electorate. These features help the parties establish a strong link with the masses and pave the way to their power.
The Congress continues to have an all-India presence despite being out of power at the Centre since 2014. However, though the party has ruled the country for about 55 years since Independence, it has witnessed a decline in popularity in the post-Rajiv Gandhi era. The worst came when the party failed to attain the status of a recognised opposition party in the Lok Sabha in the 2014 and 2019 General Elections.
Its best performance in the Lok Sabha since the 1952 elections was winning 404 of the 543 seats in the 1984-85 election, and its worst was in the 2014 (42) and 2019 (54) elections. The decline of the Congress began with the rise of regional parties, particularly after the fourth General Election in 1967. The Congress was voted out of power after the 1977 elections, but it bounced back in 1980 after the Janata Party’s collapse in 1979.
The era of coalition politics at the Centre began in 1989 and has continued in different forms. The Congress headed a minority government under PV Narasimha Rao (1991-96) with outside support from other parties and later led coalition governments under Manmohan Singh (2004-14).
Punjab was part of the ‘Congress system’ as the Congress party ruled the state from 1947 to 1967. It comfortably won the 1952, 1957, and 1962 Assembly elections. The reorganisation of Punjab in 1966 altered its political and electoral dynamics. It became a Sikh-majority state, providing political space for the Akali Dal as the representative of the Sikh masses.
After the state’s reorganisation, the Congress formed the government five times in the 13 Assembly elections held from 1967 to 2022. On the other hand, the SAD formed the government six times in alliance and once on its own in 1985. The present government, led by the Aam Aadmi Party, came into power in 2022.
The Congress formed the government in the state in 1972, 1980, 1992, 2002 and 2017, winning 66, 63, 87, 62, and 77 seats, respectively, and securing 42.84%, 45.19%, 43.83%, 35.81%, and 38.5% of the votes cast. It got the highest vote share in the 1980 elections when Punjab was moving towards a turbulent phase. Darbara Singh became the Chief Minister, but the Congress government at the Centre dismissed his government in 1983 before its term was over and imposed President’s rule.
In the 15 Lok Sabha elections held since 1967, the seats and vote share of the party out of the total 13 seats was: 1967 (9-37%), 1971 (10-46%), 1977 (0-35%), 1980 (12-53%), 1985 (6-42%), 1989 (2-27%), 1992 (12-49%), 1996 (2-35%), 1998 (0-26%), 1999 (8-38%), in 2004 (2-34%), 2009 (8-45%), 2014 (3-33%), 2019 (8-40%) and 2024 (7-26.30%). In the 1977 and 1998 elections, the party could not win even a single seat because of a united opposition.
Now we discuss the performance of the Congress government (2017-22) that paved the way for the AAP’s unprecedented victory in 2022. The government failed to meet the expectations of the electorate, as indicated in the post-poll study conducted by Lokniti after the 2022 elections. It was found that 85% of the voters cited rising unemployment during this period, while 74% and 82%, respectively, stated that the problems of drugs and inflation had increased. A total of 61% of farmers said they faced difficulties in selling crops in the market during this period. Also, more than half of them stated that their economic conditions had worsened. Only 20% reported an improvement in their conditions.
While over 50% of voters stated that there was considerable improvement in school education, roads, electricity, drinking water supply, etc, during the Congress regime, 80% were unhappy with Capt Amarinder Singh and 53% with Charanjit Singh Channi’s performance as CMs during 2017-22. The pro-poor policies focused on targeted welfare, healthcare, subsidised food distribution and free bus travel for women, etc, did not help the party get the masses’ support.
The other reason for the Congress’ poor performance was its inability to handle indiscipline within the party. A large number of leaders and workers formed a separate group under Amarinder Singh and later contested elections in alliance with the BJP. The issue of corruption involving many ministers, legislators and others in the Congress government had also become a cause of embarrassment for the party. The change of guard and appointment of Channi as CM without obtaining the consent of the majority of the MLAs were also not well received by the voters.
The party’s fortune revived with Rahul Gandhi’s eight-day Bharat Jodo Yatra that passed through Punjab in January 2023. The yatra received an overwhelming response. The party reaped electoral dividends in the 2024 Lok Sabha and 2025 urban local body elections. It won seven Lok Sabha seats despite weaknesses within the state party unit. The pro-people issues raised by Rahul as the Leader of the Opposition, his fight against the Modi regime’s authoritarian agenda, support for farmers’ issues, protection of the Constitution, fight for the marginalised communities, etc, have changed his image from being considered an immature politician to a ‘political man’.
Scheduled Castes constitute more than one-third of Punjab’s population. They are politically aware and has been the Congress’s backbone since 1952. The Congress may benefit from the stature of its national president Mallikarjun Kharge, a seasoned politician from the SC community.
The 2027 Assembly elections will be a multi-cornered contest, like the previous one in 2022. There is a possibility of the SAD and BJP forming an alliance if the former is willing to restructure the previous seat-sharing formula.
The biggest challenge for the AAP is opposition from various sections of society as it has not fulfilled the mandate it got in 2022. Its inability to tackle the economic crisis, agrarian unrest, drug trade, law and order, corruption and governance issues during its more than four years in office has raised questions about the party’s political relevance in the coming elections. In addition, endemic factionalism, organisational weakness, dominance of the Delhi Darbar, ideological bankruptcy, etc are likely to hit the party’s prospects.
For the SAD, its repeated electoral marginalisation since 2014, with the isolation of the traditional Jat Sikh peasantry and urban upper caste Sikhs, along with factional fights, has posed serious challenges.
Punjab is the only state in north India where the BJP is struggling to establish a foothold in spite of it having a 45% Hindu population. The BJP’s recent emphasis on Sikh issues, including outreach to Damdami Taksal and other Sikh bodies, may not yield significant electoral gains, as is clear from the past elections.
The major electoral issues in the coming elections will be farmers’ distress, unemployment, drug menace, law and order, gangsterism and goondagardi of state and non-state actors, youth migration, corruption, and problems of employees and pensioners.
The big question is whether the Congress leadership will be able to take the electorate into confidence on these issues. The appointment of a three-member committee to assess the ground reality of the organisation’s functioning, eliminate factionalism and gauge the voters’ pulse shows that the Congress is serious about fighting the next elections.
