IN my previous column on Thursday (“Another dead-end solution to the plastic crisis,” Nov. 5), I said I did not intend to write about the remarkable results of the United States midterm elections — the returns from which were coming in as I was writing that column on Wednesday morning — as I find politics weird and creepy, and difficult to talk about without swearing a lot. I am also keenly aware that anything I have to say comes from a strongly biased point of view, not so much when it comes to this country, as I have no right or responsibility to take part in choosing its leadership, but definitely so in my country of origin. Thus, I have to work harder than I usually do to ensure I am not conflating facts with opinion.
All that being the case, I thought it best just to leave the political commentary to others. But perhaps I should have not said that because I immediately received messages from a number of people, including at least seven whose views I respect, telling me: “No, please, you should write about the election.” When I asked to what end I should do this, I got a variety of answers, ranging from the combative (“there are a lot of Filipino MAGA-boos; you should put them in their place”) to the more curious (“you can explain what really happened, and what we might realistically expect from it”).
OK, fine. I will make the attempt. However, as a caveat, I should point out that I was thrilled with how the elections turned out. Ecstatic, even, as the results wildly exceeded even my most optimistic expectations. From my perspective, the overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party over the neofascist MAGA machine of the abomination known as Donald Trump was long overdue. But the operative fact in my view is not that the Democrats won (although there are a number of good people among them that I do individually support); it’s that he lost. So everything I am about to say below comes from a certain point of view.
Historical context
As there are no political parties worthy of the definition here in the Philippines, our two-party system in the US may be a bit of a mystery to most people. Trump has been an aberration for the 10 years he has infected our political landscape, because even though the president is always an important figure, the way our system is supposed to work is that whoever that person is both leads and reflects his party. With Blob Vila (I’m going to start calling him that for a while, because he is so fixated on renovation projects) and the Republicans, that pattern has been reversed: the Republican Party has become a reflection of him, not the other way around.
That unusual state of affairs had a big impact on how the Nov. 3 elections turned out, and perhaps skewed the historical pattern to some degree. In general, the party of the sitting president loses some power in midterm elections, which occur every two years, and include the entire House of Representatives (435 seats), one-third of the Senate (33 or 34 seats), and numerous offices at the state and local levels. There have only been three occasions since the end of the Civil War that the incumbent president’s party has maintained or increased its power: in 1934, during the first term of Franklin D. Roosevelt, in the midst of the Great Depression; in 1962, during the abbreviated presidency of John F. Kennedy; and in 2002, during the administration of George W. Bush, in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the US. Third or other parties have not been a significant factor in any US election since before the Civil War — almost 170 years ago.
What happened?
The power shift is usually rather modest; the incumbent party may lose control of one or the other chambers of Congress and some states, but the margins are usually a handful of seats, one way or the other. The results of this midterm have been unprecedented, at least since the last election (1860) prior to the outbreak of the Civil War. As of the time of this writing (noon on Friday, Nov. 6), the Democrats have decisively reversed Republican/MAGA majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as among state governments.
With a few races still to be officially called, the Democrats currently hold a 253-157 majority in the House, and if the remaining races finish in the direction they are leaning at the moment, the final tally will be 261-174. That means at least 45 House seats “flipped” from Republicans to Democrats.
In the Senate, the Democrat majority is currently 54-44, and in the two races that remain to be officially called, Democrats have the edge. However, in one of those, Alaska, it seems more likely the Republican candidate would win, as the state has a unique ranked-choice system that gives him a bit of an advantage. Thus, the likely final margin will be 55-45, with eight seats having flipped.
Why did it happen?
The shortest and best answer is that the election was a referendum on Trump himself. He characterized it that way in the campaign leading up to the election. In political rallies since the beginning of September, he told his audiences, “I’m on the ballot,” or “just pretend I’m on the ballot,” or words to that effect 54 times. Then, of course, once it was clear the elections were a wipeout for his cult-like machine, the first thing he claimed in social media posts and media interviews was, “I wasn’t on the ballot.”
Trump’s economic program of tariffs, cutbacks to health care, and other social support, ballooning government debt, and higher inflation has been disastrous for American families and businesses. His war on Iran is deeply unpopular, as is his cozying up to authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The massive, open corruption of Trump, his family and his close supporters has also been off-putting, as has been his fixation on irrelevancies, such as his renaming of geographical features, his attempt to make over the White House, and of course, that damned Reflecting Pool that stretches between the Lincoln Memorial and the Washington Monument. If this week’s elections had been a presidential election, and provided his opponent was a reasonably healthy person who could make at least a five-minute speech without talking about himself, Trump would’ve gotten smoked. As things turned out, American voters just went with the best available alternative.
What happens next?
I don’t know, and to be frank, I am deeply worried about the possibilities. The newly elected Congress and other offices will not be seated until the first week of January, which leaves Trump plenty of time to do a great deal of damage to the country and the world. And then when the new government does take office, it is likely there would be a great deal of infighting, as there is growing resistance to the idea of the Democrats’ two current leaders — Rep. Hakeem Jeffries and Sen. Chuck Schumer — keeping those positions.
All in all, from my point of view, while I can celebrate Mango Mussolini and his cult’s receiving a long-deserved smackdown, I am looking forward to 2027 with trepidation rather than hope. I suppose we shall see what happens.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Bluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
Website: www.badmannersgunclub.com
