The government ‘black hole’ which could see your taxes start to rise

PoliticsBusiness & Finance
6 Aug 2025 • 7:05 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

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  • The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a £41 billion shortfall in public finances.
  • This deficit, projected by 2029-30, is attributed to Labour's policy reversals, increased borrowing, and sluggish economic growth.
  • NIESR suggests the Chancellor must either raise taxes, cut public spending, or abandon her fiscal rules to address the 'impossible trilemma' of balancing commitments.
  • Tax increases are considered the more probable solution, with NIESR highlighting that the poorest 10 per cent of households have already experienced a 1.3 per cent drop in living standards under Labour.
  • The think tank also noted that the Chancellor's current £9.9 billion financial buffer is insufficient and proposed a potential rewrite of the government's fiscal rules.

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