There is no reason why the green wave might not swing in favour of PMX Anwar.
In 1998, when the then deputy prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, was thrown in jail by Mahathir, it was the Malays that stood up for Anwar. The Chinese and Indians solidly stood behind Mahathir and gave Mahathir a 2/3rd majority in the 1999 elections.
Today the tables have turned. It's the Chinese and Indians that are standing behind Anwar, but this relationship is not written in stone.
The Chinese and Indians are merely standing behind Anwar because it is in our self-interest to stand behind Anwar. We don't identify with Anwar. Anwar is a Malay.
The Malays, too, are not against Anwar. They identify with Anwar. If they did not stand behind Anwar during the 2022 elections, it was merely because it was not in their self-interest to stand behind Anwar 8 months ago.
As they say, a week is a long time in politics. 8 months makes a lifetime difference.
Today, it is unclear that the Malay self-interest does not lie in standing behind Anwar.
Anwar doesn't look like he is unwilling or unable to protect the rights and interests of Islam and the Malays. When he does things like waiving RM 8.3 billion of the Felda settler's debt, he clearly shows that he is capable and willing to take care of the interest of the Malays. Even Muhyiddin understands the significance of waiving the Felda settler's debt to the Malays because he came out strongly protesting Anwar's claim.
Whether it is Muhyiddin or Anwar that waived the Felda settler's debt, one thing is for sure: Anwar is the one that is in a position to do something for the Malays waiving the Felda settler's debt. Rather than rally behind Muhyiddin, who might or might not be able to get in the position where he can do things like settle the Felda settler's debt, the simpler, more practical and effective decision for the Malays to make, is to stand behind Anwar.
Right now, Anwar might be advocating very strongly for multiculturalism in Malaysia, but that is only because his support base today comprises chiefly Indians and Chinese. In the 6-state elections, if the Malays turn the tide of the green wave in favour of Anwar, then Anwar's support base will also be made up of the Malays, which will likely cause Anwar to be more Malay-centric than multicultural in his approach, views and expression.
Even PAS was more multicultural in its approach, views and expressions when part of Pakatan Harapan. If even PAS can be persuaded to be more multicultural and multireligious when it has the support of the Chinese and Indians, surely Anwar will also become more Malay-centric if he receives the support of the Malays.
Earlier, almost every analyst and expert predicted an onslaught of the green wave against Anwar, to the extent that everybody predicted that Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, even Penang, might fall to PN's hand.
I have always maintained that there is no green wave. I said it even before Khairy Jamalluddin said it, and I have even foreseen the possibility of the green wave swinging in favour of Anwar, to the extent that Terengganu and maybe even Kedah, might fall to Anwar's or his ally's hand.
I have noticed that in the last few days, there has been a change in the narrative where the likelihood of Terengganu and Kedah falling to Anwar's hand has been raised.
A sign that Anwar might be able to turn the green wave in his favour is that Hadi and Mahathir cannot rally the Muslims and Malays to their side, even when they have taken extreme stands regarding race and religion. Despite their extreme stand, the reaction from the Malays and Muslims has been very muted. It is likely muted because the Malays don't wish to protest against Anwar, which is a sign that the Malays are preparing to accept Anwar as their leader.
Anwar is, after all, the most powerful Malay leader in the country today. No other Malay leader comes close to him in strength and power. Muhyiddin, Hadi, Mahathir and Zahid Hamidi are not even close to the level of power and strength that Anwar has. There are some nuances as to why the Malays can't accept Anwar as a leader yet, but they are certainly thinking about it. Why wouldn't they?
Now, if you notice, in the title, I said the green wave might swing in favour of Anwar, not the greenwave might swing in favour of the unity government.
I didn't say that the green wave might swing in favour of the unity government because I think only Anwar is going to benefit if the green wave changes direction. On the other hand, DAP will be put in a very tricky position.
If the green wave swings in favour of Anwar, and Anwar reciprocates the support of the Malays and the Muslims by adopting more of their approach, viewpoints and outlooks, then DAP might find itself in the same position that MCA used to be in.
The post-six-state election is likely going to be an interesting time.
For now, I predict that Anwar will emerge from the six-state election as the undisputed leader of Malaysia, but I am not sure whether Anwar's good fortune is equal to the good fortune of the unity government.
For the longest time, we have been accustomed to thinking of the PKR and DAP relationship as a ship, semi-partnership; one of the things I am most interested to see in the post-6 state election era is whether the relationship between PKR and DAP will endure.
Nehru Sathiamoorthy is a columnist at FMT, a mathematics teacher in the Klang Valley and a seeker of the meaning of life. So far, there are three things that he holds to be unequivocally true. The first is that the purpose of life is to pursue happiness, the second is that you cannot be happy unless you carry your fair share of the world's weight and the third is that you can never underestimate your ability to take your own side.
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