The invisible war

WorldPolitics
10 Mar 2026 • 12:08 AM MYT
The Manila Times
The Manila Times

One of the longest-running English broadsheets in the Philippines

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ESPIONAGE is often called the world’s second-oldest profession. From the courts of ancient emperors to the digital battlefields of today, nations have always spied on enemies, even on friends. No serious government pretends otherwise. What distinguishes states is not whether espionage exists, but whether they are capable of defending themselves against it.

The Philippines is now confronting a troubling reality. Chinese intelligence activities in the country have become too blatant to ignore. What once existed in the shadows has begun to surface in full view.

From the strange and still unsettling saga of former Bamban mayor Alice Guo to more recent cases involving security personnel accused of leaking sensitive information, the pattern is becoming unmistakable. Each incident may appear isolated. Taken together, however, they suggest something more systemic — the visible tip of a much larger iceberg.

The uncomfortable truth is that the Philippines finds itself in an asymmetric contest with a far larger, more sophisticated power.

China is not improvising. Its intelligence apparatus operates with patience, resources and long-term strategic intent. Its methods are multilayered: human intelligence recruitment, cyber penetration, economic leverage, political cultivation and influence operations. The objective is rarely dramatic sabotage. More often, it’s quiet access to information, networks and influence.

Unfortunately, democracies like ours are particularly vulnerable to such operations.

An open society values transparency, free movement, and the exchange of ideas. These are strengths in normal times. But they can also serve as entry points for foreign intelligence services adept at exploiting institutional weaknesses.

Authoritarian systems enjoy certain advantages in intelligence competition. Their internal security apparatus operates with fewer legal restraints and with centralized authority. Democracies must balance national security with civil liberties. That balance is not a weakness; it’s a defining feature of democratic governance. But it requires discipline and institutional maturity.

The real problem facing the Philippines is not merely espionage. It’s fragmentation. Our security architecture is riddled with silos, as with many of our existing government systems.

Information relevant to national security is scattered across multiple agencies: the military, police, coast guard, immigration authorities, intelligence services, financial regulators, local governments, and the private sector. Each may hold a fragment of a larger picture, yet those fragments often fail to converge in time.

History shows that intelligence failures are rarely the result of limited information. More often, they arise from a failure to connect the dots. The Alice Guo case illustrated this weakness precisely. Questions about identity, citizenship records, business activity, and political financing existed across different bureaucracies. No single agency saw the full mosaic early enough to act decisively.

Foreign intelligence services understand these gaps very well. They do not need to break down fortified doors if institutional weaknesses leave windows open, and addressing this challenge requires more than reactive arrests or sensational headlines. It demands structural reform.

First, the Philippines must build a truly integrated counterintelligence system. Intelligence sharing cannot remain an informal arrangement dependent on personalities or bureaucratic goodwill. Real-time information fusion must become standard practice, as any kind of delay will prove to be costly.

Second, critical institutions must be hardened against infiltration. Sensitive positions in defense, maritime security, telecommunications, energy infrastructure, and election systems require continuous vetting, not merely one-time background checks. Insider threats remain one of the most effective tools in modern espionage.

Third, local government units must no longer be treated as peripheral to national security. Municipal halls, business registration offices, land records and civil registries may appear mundane, yet they are fertile terrain for covert influence. National security does not reside only in military bases or intelligence headquarters. It also lives in the integrity of local governance.

Fourth, our legal framework must be modernized. Many of the laws governing espionage were written in another era, long before cyber warfare, digital surveillance, and sophisticated foreign influence operations became commonplace. Updating these laws is essential, but it must be done carefully to protect the civil liberties that define a democratic society. The National Security Council has urged Congress to prioritize two proposed bills, namely: the new Anti-Espionage Bill to replace the Commonwealth Act 616 that was passed way back during the American period, and (2) the Anti-Foreign Malign Influence and Interference Act.

Finally, the public itself must become part of the defensive architecture. Counterintelligence is not solely the domain of shadowy agencies. Universities, businesses, journalists, and civic institutions must develop a basic literacy about influence operations, disinformation, and covert recruitment. Once these institutions have been strengthened, the general public will follow.

Vigilance must be encouraged without descending into paranoia or xenophobia. The target, after all, is not a specific nationality or ethnicity, but the clandestine activities directed by foreign states.

I learned during my time in government, particularly when dealing with national defense and security matters, that intelligence is often invisible until it suddenly becomes impossible to ignore. The best counterintelligence successes rarely make headlines precisely because they prevent crises before they occur. When failures do surface publicly, they usually reveal weaknesses that have existed for years.

In the end, the challenge we face is not merely Chinese espionage. It’s whether the Philippines can overcome its own institutional weaknesses. Great powers will continue to test smaller nations; that is the enduring logic of geopolitics. The more important question is how those nations respond.

We cannot match China in scale or resources. But we can become harder to penetrate, faster to detect and more disciplined in defending our institutions.

The invisible front of national security is no longer somewhere far away. It runs quietly through our institutions, our communities and even our politics.

And the most dangerous vulnerability is not foreign espionage itself, but complacency.

As Michael Corleone said in “The Godfather Part 2,” a line often misattributed to Sun Tzu, “Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.”

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