Forecasters expect Friday's U.S. jobs report to show employers added 65,000 positions in October, with the unemployment rate holding at a low 4.2%.
The figures, due from the Labor Department, follow a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. The report lands three days after midterm elections in which voters handed President Donald Trump and his Republican Party a stunning defeat. Americans gave Democrats full control of the U.S. Congress, frustrated with the state of the economy and especially the high cost of living.
The job market has likely bounced back from a disappointing September, with layoffs low and most Americans enjoying unusual job security. But hiring has probably remained too modest to deliver much relief to those looking for work. Wage gains, meanwhile, haven't been keeping up with persistently high inflation.
The job market has been solid but unspectacular. So far this year, employers – companies, government agencies and nonprofits – have added an average of 68,000 jobs a month, including a disappointing 29,000 last month.
That is modest by historic standards but an improvement over 2025, when monthly job creation averaged 9,700. That was the weakest performance outside of a recession since 2002. High interest rates and President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies discouraged hiring last year.
Despite recovering this year, hiring remains well below the average of 166,000 monthly jobs created in 2023 and 2024. It also trails the 491,000 a month recorded during the 2021-2022 hiring boom that followed COVID-19 lockdowns. Economists see a "low-fire, low-hire'' environment in which employers are reluctant to let go of existing workers but aren't in any hurry to hire new ones.
Young people entering the workforce, or those who've lost their jobs, can struggle to find work. The United States doesn't need as many new jobs as it once did to keep the unemployment rate from rising. That is because baby boomer retirements and Trump's immigration crackdown mean fewer people are competing for work.
In late 2023, the so-called break-even point was around 166,000 new jobs a month. It's now just over 5,000, according to an estimate by Yale University's Budget Lab, which drew on an earlier Federal Reserve report. Rising prices have pinched pay for millions of Americans.
After taking inflation into account, average hourly earnings fell 0.7% in September – the sixth straight year-over-year drop and one explanation for voters' fury at the polls Tuesday. Yet the American economy and job market have proven resilient amid a series of shocks.
Those include Trump's double-digit taxes on imports and the war with Iran, which has driven U.S. gasoline prices above $4 a gallon and pinched family budgets. Gross domestic product – the nation's output of goods and services – advanced at a sprightly 3.4% annual pace from July through September. Strong consumer spending and booming investment in artificial intelligence lifted growth.
Read MoreTrump ignored Americans’ real pain. Now he’s paid the price
Here’s how past midterm flips in Congress have impacted taxpayers
Gas prices to hit record high on eve of midterms in blow to Trump
