The odds of being hit by the satellite crashing into Earth today, according to NASA

WorldSpace
11 Mar 2026 • 3:36 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • A 600-kilogram NASA satellite, Van Allen Probe A, is projected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Tuesday evening at around 11:45 PM GMT (7:45 PM EDT.)
  • The satellite, launched in 2012, operated for seven years, collecting vital data on Earth's radiation belts to enhance space weather forecasting.
  • NASA expects the majority of the spacecraft to burn up during re-entry, though some components are anticipated to survive.
  • The US space agency estimates an extremely low risk of harm to anyone on the ground, approximately 1 in 4,200.
  • While rare, instances of space objects impacting people or property are not unprecedented, with a notable incident occurring in China in 2002.

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