IT seems some factions within the DDS Universe are starting to accept that their primary hope of returning to power in 2028 — Vice President Sara Duterte — might not qualify anymore, perpetually disqualified from holding public office. This, despite an opinion polling firm releasing its survey results showing 50 percent of respondents supporting Duterte’s presidential bid in 2028.
(The results were released a day after the prosecution concluded its presentation of witnesses regarding Duterte’s unexplained wealth, which some observers claim was a home run for the prosecution.) Actually, this came out of my discussion last week with a friend who happens to be an appointee of former president Rodrigo Duterte, the father of the vice president.
According to him, he has had consultations with former colleagues in the Duterte administration and some leaders in DDS groups, and apparently, some of them have accepted the fact that there is a strong chance of the younger Duterte being convicted. And if that happens, they have to field a replacement for their standard bearer, and the emerging consensus is Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte, with Sen.
Robin Padilla as his running mate.
On the other side of the fence, early indications were that they were going to field a unified ticket against the vice president. But that was before Duterte was impeached and tried. It would have been a bigger coalition, much bigger than that of the Unity ticket in 2022, which catapulted Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte to the presidency and vice presidency, respectively, as even the elder Duterte’s political party during his incumbency — the PDP Laban — was reportedly joining the said coalition. And the emerging consensus then to face Sara was former vice president, now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo.
But a Sara conviction would drastically change the political scenario.
And as such, we are expecting a free-for-all battle. A Royal Rumble.
While the Duterte side seems to be already decided on a Baste-Robin slate, the opposing side seems to be teeming with contenders. Early names and tandems being floated are the Risa Hontiveros-Bam Aquino team; Leni Robredo-Bam Aquino; and Leni Robredo-Manny Pacquiao.
Among the three possible tickets, the Robredo-Pacquiao appears to be gaining approval from different political groups, as they believe Robredo could unite voters from Luzon while Pacquiao could rally Mindanaoans for support.
However, political analysts all agree something could be working against a Robredo-Pacquiao ticket.
Historical patterns show that losing presidential candidates, despite showing strong performance in their presidential bids, have never won in their second attempt. These include the late senator Miriam DefensorSantiago, the late senator Raul Roco, Sen. Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, and even religious leader Eddie Villanueva.
All of them had fallen victims to the so-called “Curse of the Repeat Presidential Candidates.” Only Hontiveros and Aquino have no prior presidential runs.
But then, there is a rising wild card for 2028, which my friend — the former Duterte appointee — admits they are wary of. The tandem of Senators Raffy Tulfo and Christopher “Bong” Go.
While Tulfo’s third-place finish in the 2022 senatorial elections cannot compare to Padilla’s top slot, it should be noted that the former ran as an independent candidate. No political machinery whatsoever. Just imagine the wonders of what a welloiled political machinery is backing him up in a presidential race.
Actually, Tulfo tied with Sara Duterte at 46 percent voter preference in a 2028 Mock Presidential Survey pitting them one on one.
The breakdown per region is as follows: Metro Manila: tied at 42 percent; Balance Luzon: Tulfo led strongly with 72 percent against Duterte’s 19 percent; Visayas: Duterte led with 64 percent against Tulfo’s 32 percent; Mindanao: Duterte led with 90 percent against Tulfo’s 9 percent.
And Bong Go? Not only could he rally support from vote-rich Mindanao, but he could neutralize the support for Baste coming from the not-so-hardcore DDS. The only setback for Bong Go is the rumor that the International Criminal Court is set to issue an arrest warrant against him.
Another thing is if he could get the approval of the voters opposed to the Dutertes. But he topped the 2025 senatorial elections. Maybe he could rely on them again for 2028.
Anyway, the election is still about one and a half years from today, and the filing for candidacy is about a year from now. The Senate has yet to decide on the fate of Vice President Sara Duterte. A lot may still happen. But the Tulfo-Go wild card cannot be underestimated. The road to 2028 is getting interesting and is about to get exciting.
