Just when the ceasefire between the US and Iran seemed to be holding, it collapsed again in mid-July. On 13 July, the US resumed strikes against Iran after Tehran fired on shipping and disabled two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and by 14 July had reinstated its full naval blockade of Iranian ports and completed a fourth consecutive night of strikes, hitting missile sites, drone capabilities and coastal defense systems near the strait.
US Central Command said the goal is degrading Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping through Hormuz, a waterway that once carried roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas before the war began. President Trump initially floated charging commercial shippers a 20 percent fee on cargo value to fund US protection of the strait, then reversed course after Gulf states reportedly offered to invest directly in the US instead. He has also warned that strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants could follow if Tehran does not return to the negotiating table, a threat retired US general Mark Kimmitt cautioned should stay focused strictly on military targets rather than civilian infrastructure.
Global oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude jumping over 9 percent to settle above 83 US dollars a barrel, its biggest single day gain in more than six years. That matters directly to Malaysia, a country that still subsidises fuel heavily and has already watched its monthly subsidy bill climb as West Asia tensions dragged on through the year. Every spike in global crude prices tightens that same pressure further.
Iran, for its part, claims it struck US military assets in Kuwait and fired on a US naval vessel, framing its actions as retaliation for what it calls repeated American aggression. Oman has been quietly trying to broker a traffic management proposal for the strait, but with both sides trading strikes again, that diplomatic effort looks increasingly fragile.
This is not a distant war anymore in any economic sense. Every barrel of oil that gets more expensive in the Gulf eventually shows up somewhere in a Malaysian budget, whether that's the fuel subsidy bill, grocery prices, or your next TNB statement. This entire cycle of blockade, ceasefire and collapse has repeated itself several times since the war first broke out in late February, when the US and Israel launched surprise strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and other senior officials. Each time a truce has held for a few weeks before some fresh incident, a mined tanker, a disputed shipping route, an accusation of bad faith, has dragged both sides back into open conflict, which makes it difficult for any government, Malaysia included, to plan fuel budgets around the assumption that this particular ceasefire will be the one that finally sticks.
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