FROM the start, it was obvious to this writer as it was to many other observers that the United States military raid of January 2026 that captured Venezuela’s then-president Nicolas Maduro and billed as a police operation to capture a narcoterrorist was really about oil.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven reserves — some 303 billion barrels, accounting for one-fifth of the global total. That country’s oil industry had been grossly mismanaged and so much of those reserves remain untapped, tempting foreign powers to intervene. Soon after Maduro and his wife were airlifted to a New York prison, US President Donald Trump wasted no time in announcing he was taking over Venezuela’s oil export business.
Some naïve people thought regime change was the object of the exercise. They expected that the US would put in power anti-Maduro opposition that the US and other countries in the region recognized as the true victors in the last presidential election held in the country. But it was Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s vice president, who was installed as interim president. There has been no indication how long “interim” will take. Her cooperation has been used by the Trump administration as an argument for the legitimacy of the Trump takeover. The same cooperation gives credence to reports in the social media that Rodriguez and his brother, who heads the National Assembly, flew to Miami and met with Trump’s people to plot Maduro’s ouster, except that the Rodriguezes proposed exile to a third country, rather than incarceration. This cooperation of insiders may explain the ease with which the raiders did their job; the Venezuelan and Cuban guards were caught unawares and the Americans suffered zero casualties.
Under US management, Venezuelan oil exports have been rising. The US has collected over $13 billion from approximately 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil sales. The US used Venezuelan and US trading firms to move the oil and transfer it to buyers. Major buyers include the US, refineries in the Persian Gulf, India and Spain. Fifty million barrels of Venezuelan oil sales. Transactions bypass traditional Venezuelan state channels. Washington dictates approved spending categories.
Proceeds from the sales have been routed through controlled accounts, initially managed via Qatar and later under US Treasury and State Department supervision. A constitutional crisis is said to be developing over the US management and control of Venezuelan oil exports. There is no legislative oversight over particularly where the proceeds go and land.
How much the Venezuelan government and people benefit from the country’s oil exports has been an increasingly contentious issue. Only a fraction of the billions generated has transparently reached local public programs. US officials report distributing $3 billion to the Rodriguez administration said to finance essential medicine, policing and infrastructure repairs.
Encouraged by thriving export sales, Trump has set his eyes on expansion. He is going into oil production, developing about 17 unexploited or underexploited oil fields. Trump has formed a corporation securing for the US majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil. That would expand US territorial proven reserves of more than 45 billion barrels.
The deal signed by the US Secretary of State and the Secretary of War gives the US powerful governance rights, economic ownership and guaranteed low-cost off-take in a new private Venezuelan oil champion, which will be the second-largest private oil company by reserves in the world.
The Venezuelan authorities have granted North American Blue Energy Partners (Nabep), a privately held oil company that is the second-largest Venezuelan oil producer, 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 million barrels. Nabep in turn gives the US Department of State the right to purchase at production cost, a guaranteed 20 percent of the off-take from all current and future fields operated by Nabep and the right of first refusal to purchase the remaining 80 percent.
The Guardian reported on the problems of the agreement that might prevent its providing early relief from the ongoing energy crisis. Rather than a government-to-government treaty, the private company is paired with government entities. The 100-year concessions clash with Venezuelan law which grants only 25-year concessions. Venezuela’s dilapidated infrastructures and crippled output will require upwards of $100 billion and take anywhere from 40 to 10 years to renew and revive. Heavy Venezuelan crude is poorly suited for direct injection into the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve without substantial refining alterations.
The US-Venezuela deal has already sparked massive demonstrations in Venezuela. Protesters have called the deal unconstitutional, predatory and an illegitimate resource grab. In the US, protesters criticize the use of military aggression to secure oil supply, brandishing “No blood for oil” slogans. A senator has warned the agreement might put US military troops in harm’s way as the unrest it is causing in Venezuela might force Trump to call the military to step in.
Trump may be contemplating using the Venezuela template for the US military intervention in Iran. He ordered an attack on Kharg Island, which the Iranians use for loading and storing crude oil. But he told the US troops not to touch the oil in its depots. They could strike the Iranian troops guarding the depots, but not the depots of oil themselves. Maduro might call himself lucky because Trump just sent him to prison. Khomeini was bombed into pieces to put him out of the way.
Prince Reza Pahlavi may have had a rude awakening that Trump was not really interested in helping him and his protesters bring democracy to Iran. He has suggested that Trump take his ground troops and go home.
