GOOD FRIDAY turned out to be good in a very literal sense, with the welcome news that the Islamic Republic of Iran had granted the Philippines’ plea to allow Philippine-flagged or -bound ships to pass the closed Strait of Hormuz. The government here hailed the news as a solution to our fuel supply and price worries, hinting that the “national energy emergency” might soon pass.
The temporary improvement in the national mood may be the most valuable outcome of this development. Don’t get me wrong, it is still a positive development; it is, under any circumstance, better that one of the antagonists in the ongoing war is allowing Philippine-bound cargoes to escape the Persian Gulf than having those ships remain stranded. But it is not quite the “win” the Philippines would like it to be, and may be of more value to the Iranians than it is to us here.
First of all, according to as much data as I could access, it does not seem that there are any “Philippine-flagged” vessels of any kind in the Persian Gulf. As far as ships bound for the Philippines, these would presumably be tankers of one variety or another, sailing under various flags of convenience, e.g., Panama, the Marshall Islands, Malta, etc. Some cargo vessels may fall under the permission granted, bulk carriers of fertilizer, or the odd container ship or two, but there are likely only a handful of these, if any. Any ship leaving the Strait of Hormuz would certainly be scrutinized by the Iranians to ensure that it is carrying what it says it is carrying, and is not an attempt by one of Iran’s enemies, particularly the United States and Israel, to sneak shipments out by a roundabout route.
Here’s a problem that may arise. Since Iran’s government has already stated on a number of occasions that it was willing to open the strait to anyone but its enemies, how broadly or narrowly the definition of “enemies” is applied is up to the Iranians. Every other country in the Gulf — Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman — has come under fire for hosting US military assets, some more than others. It is conceivable that Iran might prevent or impose conditions on cargoes departing from these places because of that, putting Philippine-bound shipments at the center of diplomatic maneuvering between Iran and its Gulf neighbors. Anything coming out of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE is definitely at risk, because Iran has been at sword’s points with them for years. Shipments coming out of Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Oman, perhaps not so much, and in Oman’s case, it at least has ports (primarily Salalah) outside the strait, although it is the least productive of the Gulf states in terms of oil production and supply chains.
Shipments for the Philippines coming from Iran, however, would obviously not be hindered at all. Thus, the largesse granted to the Philippines by Iran is a potential windfall for Tehran. Hey Philippines, do you want to make sure your oil and gas supplies can be delivered to you? Then buy it from us. There have been a number of news reports over the past week or two indicating that even in the midst of taking severe punishment from US and Israeli attacks, Iran’s oil shipments and revenues have sharply increased, and this kind of scenario explains that perfectly.
The second point that stands out in Iran’s gesture of goodwill toward the Philippines is the geopolitical advantage Tehran gains by making it. The Iranians are fully aware that the Philippines is a hand-in-glove ally of the US, and that is mostly directed against Iran’s quiet ally China. Being nice to the Philippines, from the Iranian point of view, erodes American support, because quite frankly, the Philippines, being an importer of about 95 percent of its fuel, needs Iran — or other sources, like Russia, who are not friendly to the US — more than it needs a nebulous ideal of American partnership.
By granting dispensation to countries like the Philippines, the Iranian government is gradually isolating the US, and by extension, Israel. Iran likely does not care about the reasons the Philippines slavishly holds onto its US alliance out of a misguided ideal of sovereignty in the South China Sea, but forcing the Philippines to choose between its own needs for fuel supplies or its alliance with the US weakens the latter, which is the main goal. If you ask me, it’s pretty smart on Iran’s part, and something that our own policymakers here should try to learn something from.
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For what it’s worth, the few times I have been asked my opinion about the latest development concerning the Strait of Hormuz, and whether it changes my calculus concerning my earlier predictions of a long war and consequential prolonged global economic strife, I have maintained my outlook in the absence of any evidence that would cause me to change it. As far as the situation here in the Philippines is concerned, it actually does not change much. We had not reached a point where fuel supply was an actual problem, and that remains to be the case. However, just because our supplies are able to make it out of the Persian Gulf, at least for the time being, that in no way addresses the price factor. Depending on what the US and Israel do — and it seems likely that escalation in the next couple of weeks would occur — we are still going to be saddled with the economic crisis. We can keep our vehicles rolling and keep our lights on, but at a cost no one wants to or has the ability to bear for long.
ben.kritz@manilatimes.net
Bluesky: @benkritz.bsky.social
Website: www.badmannersgunclub.com
