A Sabah MP has recently rubbished the notion that the impending six state elections are a referendum on the current government.
The Tuaran MP, Wilfred Madius Tangau, added that such claims were “Malaya-centric.”
“Why should the second decision they make on their own now invalidate the decision made by voters from all 13 Malaysian states just nine months ago?” he asked.
Rationally speaking, I have to agree with MP Wilfred.
Indeed, why should the 6-state elections in the peninsular be seen as a referendum on a government that rules the entire federation?
If elections in just 6 out of 11 states in the peninsular are seen as a referendum on the entire federal government, then logically speaking, when the whole of East Malaysia, comprising Sabah and Sarawak, holds its elections, it should be seen as an even stronger referendum on the government of Malaysia, isn't it?
But the elections in East Malaysia have never been seen in that light.
East Malaysian politicians can complain about the unfairness and irrationality inherent in this disparity all they want, but the fact of the matter is that reality is not only composed of rational components. Our reality, whether we like it or not, is also made up of irrational elements that defy any sense of justice, fairness or proportion.
It is these irrational elements that wrote an unwritten law in Malaysia, which says that to rule the federation, you must rule in the Peninsular, and to rule in the peninsular, you must get the mandate of the Malays.
The unity government is currently ruling the federation without the mandate of the Malays. Though the opposition PN is the side that currently holds the mandate of the Malays, they are not the side that is ruling the federation.
To resolve this predicament, whether the MP of Tuaran sees it fit or not, the 6-state election will indeed act as a referendum.
Since Najib was toppled in 2018, no Malaysian Prime Minister has been able to rule for more than 2 years.
The reason why none of them could hold their job for more than 2 years, is because none of them have been successful in securing the mandate of the Malays.
This August 12, PMX Anwar will have a second chance to show that he has the mandate of the Malays.
If he shows it, he will not only rule for more than 2 years, he will likely rule for at least a full term.
If Perikatan Nasional is successful in defending the mandate of the Malays that it obtained in the general elections last year, we are yet again going to be cursed with another unstable government that is in danger of collapsing at any time.
If Perikatan Nasional not only defends the mandate of the Malays it obtained last November, but gains an even larger share of Malay support, regardless of the logic or rationality, PMX Anwar Ibrahim will likely be toppled before his term ends.
Going by the trend, where successive PM’s in the post-Najib period have been ruling in a successively shorter tenure, if Perikatan Nasional sees an increase in support amongst the Malay electorates this August 12, Anwar is likely going to rule for less than 14 months.
Considering that PMX Anwar has already ruled for 9 months, unless he obtains the mandate of the Malays this August 12, come 2024, he is no longer going to be our PM.
Nehru Sathiamoorthy is a columnist at FMT, a frequent contributor to the South China Morning Post, a mathematics teacher in the Klang Valley and a seeker of the meaning of life. So far, there are three things that he holds to be unequivocally true. The first is that the purpose of life is to pursue happiness, the second is that you cannot be happy unless you carry your fair share of the world's weight and the third is that you can never underestimate your ability to take your own side.
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