FRENCH oil major TotalEnergies expects lower oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, but stronger downstream results, as higher refining margins help offset weaker crude and LNG prices.
The company’s European refining margin marker rose to $85.7 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, up 231 percent from a year earlier.In October, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he expected refining margins in Europe to rise due to United States sanctions on Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and an EU ban on importing fuels refined from Russian oil.“Once again, despite a year-on-year decline of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results,” it said in its quarterly trading statement.Earlier this month, BP and Shell flagged weak oil trading results, citing Brent crude prices, which dropped to $63.73 a barrel in the October-to-December period as oversupply fears hit markets.TotalEnergies said it increased upstream oil and gas volumes to compensate for lower prices, leading to 5-percent year-on-year production growth. As a result, the decline in upstream results is expected to be around $6 per barrel, rather than the $11-per-barrel drop in crude prices.Integrated LNG results will be in line with the third quarter of 2025 ― which represents a roughly 40-percent drop from the fourth quarter 2024. That’s partially due to LNG prices falling 18 percent year on year.Integrated power cash flow is expected to rise, due to several minority stakes in renewable assets being sold down, leading the segment to achieve annual cash flow of $2.5 billion.
