Trump and Harris tied in nearly all battleground states just 33 days before election: Live updates

PoliticsOpinion
3 Oct 2024 • 12:24 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remain deadlocked in the key battleground states according to new polling by The Cook Political Report.

The vice president leads Trump in Michigan by three percentage points, and she also leads by one or two points in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and they are tied in North Carolina.

Trump leads in Georgia by two percentage points. All leads are within the margin of error.

Vice presidential rivals JD Vance and Tim Walz met for their first and probably final debate last night, with the Republican appearing more confident, polished, and prepared than his Democratic counterpart, who nevertheless landed some important blows.

Vance delivered a noticeably softer performance than usual and rarely wavered in his responses – even when confronted over his past comments about Trump and his recent lie about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating residents’ pets.

Walz meanwhile struggled to find his footing, appearing nervous and unsure in some of his early answers, but got more comfortable as the 90-minute showdown progressed and did well pressing the Ohio Senator on abortion, January 6, and Trump’s ongoing election denialism.

Key Points

  • New polling shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in six battleground states
  • JD Vance appears more confident than Tim Walz during surprisingly cordial debate
  • Watch the VP debate highlights, as chosen by the candidates
  • Snap polls after debate reveal what voters think of Vance and Walz’s performances
  • Who won the vice presidential debate?
  • Where will Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and Donald Trump be on Wednesday?

Can Trump break through his ceiling of support?

17:50

Oliver O'Connell

The latest polling by The Cook Political Report also looks at one of the most important and enduring political questions for Donald Trump — can he ever expand his appeal, or does he really have a hard “ceiling” of support.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump was unable to break 49 per cent of the vote in some of the most important swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona.

The September Cook poll gives some credence to the theory that his support is fixed. Since May, Trump’s overall share of the vote has barely budged (47-48 per cent), even as Harris has been able to improve on Biden’s share by five points (44-49 per cent).

Moreover, a fixed percentage of voters – 32-35 per cent – are “all-in” for Trump; they like him and his leadership traits, while a fixed percentage of voters – anywhere from 45-49 per cent – dislike Trump both personally and policy-wise.

However, if you combine the percentage of voters who are all-in on Trump with the 17-22 per cent who dislike him personally but approve of his policies, there is a pathway for Trump to break through his ceiling.

While the conventional wisdom suggests that the “like his policies/don’t like his style” voter is more likely to be a middle-aged conservative white male, the data finds this type of voter to be disproportionately Latino (26 per cent) and specifically a Latino man (28 per cent).

Most importantly, over half of the “policy not personality” voters are undecided on how to vote or say they are supporting a third-party candidate. In other words, if Trump were able to keep focused on a policy-based message, it would give him a significant advantage with those voters who are still up for grabs.

Don Jr and Kaitlan Collins get into spat over Trump ‘Hitler’ comparisons

17:30

Oliver O'Connell

Donald Trump Jr clashed with Kaitlan Collins about his father previously being compared to Adolf Hitler – before the CNN journalist reminded him that JD Vance once did the very same thing.

On Tuesday night, the Ohio senator and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz faced off for their first – and likely only – debate ahead of the election, broadcast live from CBS News’s New York City studio.

As the candidates exchanged barbs, Trump’s eldest son Don Jr waited in the wings in the spin room where he encountered Collins.

James Liddell has the story.

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Harris-Walz campaign seizes on Vance’s ‘damning non-answer’ in new ad

17:10

Oliver O'Connell

The Kamala Harris and Tim Walz campaign has seized on JD Vance’s “damning non-answer” concerning whether Donald Trump lost the 2020 election at last night’s vice presidential debate with a new ad focused on the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Watch it here:

Trump still more trusted on immigration, but lead has dropped in new poll

16:50

Oliver O'Connell

Donald Trump has his largest lead over Kamala Harris, 51 per cent to 42 per cent on the issue of border and immigration, according to the latest polling by The Cook Political Report. However, that is a five-point drop from his 53 per cent to 39 per cent lead over Harris in August. This drop comes even as the Trump campaign and its allies have run attack ads that put the blame for the surge of migrants at the southern border, and the crimes some of them have committed, at Harris’ feet.

The southern border is no longer as overwhelmed with the surge of migrants, and as such is no longer in the center of media coverage, which is likely helping Harris. Illegal crossings have dropped dramatically since June, when President Joe Biden’s executive action restricting asylum claims went into effect.

However, voters in border states like Arizona (+13) and Nevada (+12) continue to give Trump a significant advantage on the issue. But in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trump’s lead on the issue has been halved.

Don Jr claims media ‘radicalized people trying to kill his father’

16:40

Oliver O'Connell

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Trump campaign hopeful Vance’s debate performance will shake ‘weird’ label

16:20

Oliver O'Connell

The Trump-Vance campaign is hopeful the vice presidential candidate’s debate performance last night will improve his “weird” image and could kick-start the campaign for the Republican ticket, according to reports.

But last night could mark a turning point.

Rhian Lubin reports.

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New poll shows Trump slipping on economy and inflation versus Harris

16:10

Oliver O'Connell

The latest polling by The Cook Political Report, conducted between September 19-25, shows Donald Trump’s advantage slipping on the economy and inflation versus Kamala Harris.

Trump holds a five-point lead on the question of who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50-45%). But, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s six-point lead from August has evaporated. In August, Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48 per cent to 42 per cent. Today, voters are evenly divided (47 per cent) on who they trust more to handle an issue that 60 per cent of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.”

According to Cook there are a few explanations for this shift.

The first is that Harris’s message on the economy has broken through. Since kicking off her campaign two months ago, Harris has honed in on an “affordability” message that stresses reducing the costs of pharmaceutical drugs, cracking down on price gouging, and promoting affordable housing. She has also unveiled an 82-page economic policy plan.

Another is that Trump’s attempts to link her to “Bidenomics” and the role the Biden Administration’s economic policy played in driving up the cost of living have not been as effective as Republicans had hoped.

Voters give Trump only a three-point lead on a centerpiece of his economic agenda — tariffs and trade. Just 38 per cent of swing state voters said they thought that a 20 per cent tariff on imported goods would mean “companies would bring more manufacturing jobs back to the US”, while a plurality of voters (45 per cent) said that companies that import goods would “increase the prices consumers pay to pay for the tariff”.

Harris is likely also being helped by the fact that voters are slightly less pessimistic about the state of inflation and the economy today than they were in August. They also feel decidedly less gloomy about the economy and inflation than they felt in May, with 46 per cent saying things are getting better or staying the same in September, versus 38 per cent in May. The percentage of people who felt the economy is getting worse has dropped from 62 per cent in May to 54 per cent in September.

The gap between those who think inflation is getting better or staying the same and those who think it’s getting worse is eight points — a 17-point decrease in economic pessimism over the last four months.

Walz faces backlash after saying he has made friends with school shooters

16:00

Oliver O'Connell

Tim Walz is facing backlash after saying he had “become friends with school shooters” in an apparent slip up during the vice presidential debate.

The father of a 2018 Parkland shooting victim was among those who called out the Democrat, branding the apparent gaffe “absolutely abhorrent” in a post on X.

Kelly Rissman reports.

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New polling shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in six battleground states

15:50

Oliver O'Connell

A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group of 2,941 voters between September 19-25, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states.

Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 49 per cent to 48 per cent in a head-to-head race. August polling by the group had Harris leading 48 per cent to 47 per cent.

Harris has a lead within the margin of error in Arizona (+2), Michigan (+3), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2). Trump is ahead 49 per cent to 47 per cent in Georgia, and the two candidates are tied at 49 per cent in North Carolina.

‘Nostradamus’ pollster reveals who won VP debate

15:40

Oliver O'Connell

Allan Lichtman, the pollster dubbed the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has delivered his verdict on last night’s vice presidential debate.

Speaking on a YouTube livestream, the 77-year-old described JD Vance as “very personable” and “slick” but concluded Tim Walz “finally found his voice” on a key issue, which then tipped the debate in the Democrat’s favor.

Rhian Lubin and Joe Sommerlad report.

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Recap: Vance labels climate change as ‘weird science’ as he refuses to say it’s real

15:20

Joe Sommerlad

Here’s Rhian Lubin on the Republican struggling to sidestep a question about global warming mere days after Hurricane Helene but deadly destruction to the southeastern United States.

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Recap: Walz admits he was a ‘knucklehead’ to misspeak about Tiananmen Square experience

15:00

Joe Sommerlad

Let’s take a look back at some of the key interludes from last night’s head-to-head.

First up, here’s Josh Marcus on the Democrat having to backtrack on his past comments about his stay in China in 1989.

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Trump pulls out of 60 Minutes interview, four years after storming out of previous episode

14:40

Joe Sommerlad

Donald Trump pulled out of an election season interview with CBS News’s 60 Minutes that was set to air on Monday, with the Republican’s camp citing fact-checking provisions and a long-running dispute over the Hunter Biden laptop story as reasons why.

60 Minutes announced the cancellation over X.

“After initially accepting 60 Minutes’ request for an interview with Scott Pelley, former President Trump’s campaign has decided not to participate,” the show wrote in a statement.

The Trump campaign denied he was ever set to appear on the program, where Harris will also sit for an in-depth interview.

“There were initial discussions, but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung wrote on X.

“They also insisted on doing live fact checking, which is unprecedented.”

Josh Marcus has more on the no-show.

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Vance hit with Amy Adams jokes after boasting about bringing jobs back to America

14:20

Joe Sommerlad

The Republican’s attack on the Biden administration for allowing clean energy jobs to go to China yesterday, part of an attempt to pitch himself as a dynamic job creator, has invited a slew of derision online, with many film fans noting the sad lack of work coming the way of the award-winning Amy Adams since she starred in the Netflix adaptation of his memoir Hillbilly Elegy in 2020.

Greg Evans reports.

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Jimmy Kimmel mocks ‘boring’ VP debate between Vance and Walz

14:00

Joe Sommerlad

Here’s James Liddell with the view from late-night.

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What are the candidates up to on Wednesday?

13:40

Joe Sommerlad

The day after the night before, JD Vance will be “delivering remarks” in Auburn Hills and Marne, Michigan, today while Tim Walz will be undertaking a bus tour of Pennsylvania.

The Minnesota Governor had expected Kamala Harris to join him on that trip but, instead, she will be travelling to Georgia to visit communities devastated by Hurricane Helene in recent days.

Her replacement on the Walz bus ride will be none other than Senator John Fetterman.

President Joe Biden will also be visiting Helene victims in North Carolina, a state Harris is expected to visit too “in the coming days”.

And Trump?

He doesn’t appear to be doing anything today but does have a rally planned in Saginaw, Michigan, tomorrow, followed by a town hall event in Fayetteville, North Carolina, on Friday and a return to Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, the scene of the first attempt on his life back on July 13.

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Linsey Davis likens Walz’s debate performance to Biden implosion

13:20

Joe Sommerlad

MAGA social media is having a field day with this clip of Davis, one of ABC’s moderators in Philadelphia three weeks ago, trashing Tim Walz’s performance last night by comparing it to the night that ended the president’s pursuit of a second term on June 27.

Vance claims he never supported a national abortion ban. Here’s the truth

13:00

Joe Sommerlad

Since Trump’s running mate does not appear to enjoy being fact-checked, here’s Rhian Lubin and Alex Woodward to do precisely that.

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Furious Megyn Kelly drops F-bomb over Vance getting fact-checked

12:40

Joe Sommerlad

I thought it was the libs who were supposed to be easily triggered?

This was the moment she was so incensed by.

Kaitlan Collins confronts Donald Trump Jr: ‘Vance likened your dad to Hitler’

12:20

Joe Sommerlad

The CNN correspondent hung Don Jr out to dry in the spin room last night after he attempted to blame the media for the two recent assassination attempts against his father.

Watch: The key moments from last night’s VP debate between Vance and Walz

12:00

Joe Sommerlad

Here’s a quick recap if you’re just joining us or waking up bleary-eyed in the United States.

Analysis: Vance plays Trump’s anger translator on the debate stage – but he is no less extreme

11:40

Joe Sommerlad

Also taking in last night’s showdown, Rich Hall writes for Indy Premium:

“It was, at times, wonky – a style that suited Yale graduate Vance more than it did the vibes candidate Walz.

“Vance was more relaxed on the stage. He was most effective when he was plagiarizing entire paragraphs from his bestselling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy.

“Walz spoke fast. He tried to drag the conversation into his comfort zone by talking about farms as much as possible. He spoke about soybeans, corn, and topsoil. He even managed to get in a line about pheasant hunting after football practice.”

Here’s more.

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Analysis: It took nearly 90 minutes, but Walz made clear exactly why Trump chose Vance

11:20

Joe Sommerlad

Let’s take a broader view of this thing.

First up, here’s Andrew Feinberg on Vance proving his worth to the man he once suggested might just be “America’s Hitler”.

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CNN anchors interrupted by dog puppet dressed as Vance’s late grandmother

11:00

Joe Sommerlad

“Oh boy, this is how you know it’s almost 1am,” sighs Dana Bash as co-anchor Jake Tapper introduces Robert Smigel’s Triumph the Insult Comic Dog in the early hours of the morning.

Trump needs to ‘speak less’ and pass the mic to Vance, veteran pollster says

10:40

Joe Sommerlad

The Republican running mate was so good last night, in the opinion of GOP pollster Frank Luntz, he should do all of Trump’s talking for him.

Whether you agree with that assessment or not, one person who certainly will not like it is Donald J Trump himself.

With both sides inevitably claiming victory, here’s Mike Bedigan’s report on who won the vice presidential debate.

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I joined Democrats at a VP debate watch party. The vibes in the room were telling

10:20

Joe Sommerlad

A world away from poor John, Eric Garcia watched the action in Arlington, Virginia, last night, where the mood among the Democrats surrounding him shifted from silent to celebratory as Tim Walz gradually found his feet and got in some timely jabs.

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A night out with the edgelords: Watching the Walz-Vance debate with DC’s young MAGA mob

10:00

Joe Sommerlad

There were more fireworks in the Dirty Water bar in Washington DC last night – where the local Young Republicans chapter had gathered to watch Vance and Walz duke it out – than there were on the debate stage, writes poor old John Bowden, who had the grave misfortune to be there.

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Harris, Biden and Obama cheer Walz after debate

09:40

Joe Sommerlad

Here’s how Kamala Harris and the 46th and 44th presidents reacted to last night’s encounter in New York.

Snap polls after VP debate reveal what voters think of Vance and Walz’s performances

09:20

Joe Sommerlad

The general consensus among network pundits from both sides of the political aisle last night was that the Ohio Senator came across as more confident, polished and well-prepared than his Democratic rival.

But, according to a CBS/YouGov flash poll of 1,630 voters who tuned into the VP clash, it was an almost even match.

James Liddell has this report.

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Walz celebrates with slice of sausage pizza after debate

09:00

Joe Sommerlad

While JD Vance remained in the spin room talking to the media in the aftermath of last night’s encounter, Tim Walz and his wife Gwen huddled with their team before stepping out for pizza.

Here he is leaning into his “coach” persona to sum up the evening:

Watch: The VP debate highlights, as chosen by the candidates

08:40

Joe Sommerlad

Here’s a look back at the night’s key exchanges according to JD Vance and Tim Walz themselves, judging by the excerpts they chose to post on their social media accounts.

These are the moments the Republican was most pleased with…

…and here are the Democrat’s personal favourites.

Trump live-trolls debate and brands Walz ‘Low IQ Disaster’

08:20

Joe Sommerlad

Despite making a fool of himself at his own debate against Kamala Harris in Philadelphia last month (“In Springfield, they’re eating the dawgs!”), Trump was on crowing form on Truth Social as he spent his evening posting along to the Vance-Walz showdown.

This is the sort of high-calibre meme he’s been firing out.

Other notable posts from the Republican nominee included his claim that “JD crushed it!”, his angry all-caps denial that he would support a federal abortion ban and his leaping on Walz for misspeaking about gun violence.

Here’s Mike Bedigan’s report.

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Trump campaign insists Vance ‘absolutely torched’ Walz

08:00

Joe Sommerlad

In the interests of balance, here’s what the Trump campaign had to say about their man’s performance:

“Tonight, Senator JD Vance succinctly outlined the Trump-Vance plan for restoring prosperity, safety, and security to the American people after four years of destruction at the hands of Kamala Harris.

“Tampon Tim Walz, meanwhile, humiliated himself by offering the same failed, weak, radical leftism that has failed us — unable to answer the most basic question: why hasn't Kamala done any of what she's proposing during her 3.5 years in the White House?”

The statement goes on to list 16 bullet points of supposed Walz “fails” before concluding:

“Walz made clear why Americans will reject the Harris-Walz ticket in November: Kamala Harris has had three-and-a-half years in the White House — and Americans are worse off because of it.

“Why would Americans reward her with another term?”

Harris campaign urges Trump to agree to another debate

07:40

Joe Sommerlad

Shortly after the vice presidential debate ended, the Harris–Walz campaign ‘s chair Jen O’Malley Dillon released a statement asking Donald Trump to debate Vice President Kamala Harris again:

“The choice facing the American people in November was on full display tonight: between charting a new way forward, or going backwards. Vice President Harris believes that the American people deserve to see her and Trump on the debate stage one more time. She will be in Atlanta on October 23 – Donald Trump should step up and face the voters.

“Tonight, Governor Walz showed exactly why Vice President Harris picked him: he is a leader who cares about the issues that matter most to the American people. In the debate, Americans got to see a real contrast: a straight talker focused on sharing real solutions, and a slick politician who spent the whole night defending Donald Trump’s division and failures.

“On every single issue – the economy, health care, foreign policy, reproductive freedom, gun violence – Governor Walz won. He spoke passionately about the Vice President’s vision for a new way forward for the country. And in what was the most critical moment of the entire debate, which came in its final exchange, he stood up for our Constitution, while JD Vance admitted he’d put Trump ahead of the country.”

This was Trump’s response to that on Truth Social:

JD Vance and Tim Walz keep it cordial in policy-driven debate but Trump is inescapable

07:20

Joe Sommerlad

Good morning!

If you’re just joining us, here’s a recap of what happened as the US vice presidential nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz went head-to-head on the CBS debate stage in New York City on Tuesday night.

In what was a largely cordial encounter in which actual policy discussions broke out on immigration, abortion and gun control, Vance largely got the best of Walz, delivering a smooth, calm and assured performance.

Things were so civil, in fact, that statements like this were heard as the two men found common ground while attacking each other’s respective running mates:

Walz: “I agree with a lot of what Senator Vance said about what’s happening – his running mate, though, does not. And that’s the problem.”

Vance: “