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U.S. President Donald Trump has declared “peace in the Middle East” following a breakthrough ceasefire deal that has thus far returned 20 hostages to Israel and secured the release of around 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli prisons.
At a press conference, Trump described the deal as a “historic achievement”. When Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised it as “one of the most important days for world peace in 50 years”, Trump quipped, “Only 50? Maybe 100.”
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that despite the fanfare in Washington, observers on the ground suggest that while the initial exchanges represent meaningful progress, major political and security challenges remain unresolved.
“Everything has happened according to plan in Phase 1,” said New York Times correspondent David Halbfinger, reporting from Jerusalem. “But Phase 1 is really the low-hanging fruit. There’s a good chance this could be the high-water mark of the whole process.”
The next stage presents significant complications. Hamas is demanding a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists it will not pull back without securing the full terms laid out in Trump’s proposal. “We have the ingredients for a standoff,” Halbfinger noted.
Central to the US plan is the removal of Hamas from power in Gaza. However, Hamas has made no commitment to disarm, and its fighters appear to be reasserting control on the ground. This raises pressing questions about who, if anyone, will step into the power vacuum.
Israel has ruled out reinstating the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, leaving uncertainty over the origin and legitimacy of the proposed Palestinian technocrats intended to govern under the Trump plan.
One of the more ambitious elements of the deal is the establishment of an international stabilisation force. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Turkey, and members of the European Union have reportedly expressed interest in participating.
Still, their willingness may depend on whether Hamas disarms beforehand. “Everywhere you turn, there are unresolved issues,” Halbfinger said.
The broader diplomatic context, however, is promising. “The fact that you have so many countries in the Arab and Muslim world backing the US push—not just for a ceasefire but for a greater peace—is enormously significant,” he said.
With both Hamas and Israel able to claim victories, the deal has created political space for further negotiations. Hamas has touted the return of prisoners and its survival as a strategic win. For Israel, the return of hostages and perceived weakening of Hamas offers a counter-narrative.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, long resistant to peace overtures, has made unusually conciliatory statements since the ceasefire took effect. Some analysts believe international pressure, particularly from the United States, has forced a recalibration.
“If the fighting pauses and global attention shifts, Israelis may begin to assess the reputational damage the conflict has caused,” said Halbfinger. “There’s a realisation, perhaps, that isolation on the world stage has consequences.”
As diplomats cautiously explore the potential for further progress, the moment—though fragile—has ignited rare optimism.
“Yes, there is some cause for hope,” Halbfinger added. - October 14, 2025