Nearly four months after the U.S. and Israel started its war with Iran, Donald Trump is working to secure a long-awaited deal to end the war, restore global shipping and resolve an abiding dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
The U.S. president was quick to celebrate an interim deal agreed over the weekend, but remained tight-lipped on the details ahead of a signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday.
Details of a 14 point plan have now been leaked to multiple media outlets, though Trump insisted Wednesday that the so-called memorandum of understanding is not final and issued new threats if he wasn’t happy with the agreement.
“If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head,” Trump, at the G7 summit in France. “If I don't like it, if they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, OK?”
With Israel still striking Hezbollah, and Iran wary of signing any deal that does not ensure peace in Lebanon, there remain concerns the deal could still fall apart.
Here’s what we know about the US-Iran ceasefire so far:
While confirmed details are scarce, U.S. outlets Bloomberg and CNN, and Saudi outlet Al Arabiya English, claim to have obtained a leaked version of the memorandum text, as follows:
1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
6. The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
7. The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
12. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
13. Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
14. The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
What are the key sticking points?
The Strait of Hormuz:
Questions remain around the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping route that was thrown into chaos after the war started.
The reported agreement set to be signed on Friday extends the ceasefire agreement in April by another 60 days and reopens the waterway. Trump confirmed this week he had ordered the US blockade to be lifted.
However concerns over Iran imposing tolls on shipping remain. The vital waterway, usually carrying around a fifth of global oil and LNG, ought to be free to transit under international law, but Iran has suggested it could retain control with Oman.
The exact details of the deal are still disputed; Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency, citing an Iranian source, reports that the memorandum in US media does not accurately reflect a number of key terms, including the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran funding:
Much has been made in recent days of the $300bn reconstruction figure for Iran.
The reported deal says the United States would undertake, together with regional partners, to “create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
However it does not say exactly where the money would come from, and gives the parties just 60 days to work out a mechanism to implement it.
US and Iranian officials have said the memorandum could lift sanctions on Iran, unfreeze foreign assets and set up such a reconstruction fund, paid for by Gulf states, which host US bases.
Half of that sum has already been committed, a source privy to the deal told Reuters.
Trump has disputed reports on the $300bn figure and stressed the US is not investing in it.
Nuclear programme:
The US and Israel launched the initial attacks on Iran in February following failed talks to reach a new agreement on curtailing Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful and that it is not pursuing a weapon.
But the two sides have struggled to set clear terms limiting the opportunity to acquire a nuke since Trump left former president Obama’s JCPOA ‘nuclear deal’ in 2018.
In the reported deal, Tehran has said it will “never produce nuclear weapons”, with both sides agreeing the issue will be dealt with in more detail during the 60 day window after the MOU is signed.
The war in Lebanon:
Israel’s parallel war in Lebanon is a particular sticking point, with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu continuing to strike the country despite warnings and rebukes from Trump.
The relationship between the US president and Netanyahu appears to have become increasingly fractious, with reports of an angry phone call in which Trump is said to have called his counterpart “crazy”.
Israel was not a party to the talks and says it has not agreed to withdraw from Lebanon, and reserves the right to self-defence.
Hezbollah claimed on Tuesday that it has received promises from Iran that it will not sign a final nuclear deal with the U.S. unless Israel withdraws from Lebanon.
Iran says that the agreement to end the war with the United States would require Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, where thousands of people have been killed and more than 1.2 million displaced in just over three months.
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