Analysts challenge Trump’s claim of a Chinese military threat in Greenland, citing Beijing’s limited Arctic presence and failed investment bids as evidence of minimal influence.
BEIJING: US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark to prevent Chinese control of the Arctic island.
Analysts, however, suggest China remains a minor player in the region and far from the existential threat Trump describes.
Trump has claimed Greenland would be swarming with Chinese warships without US intervention.
“Greenland is not swarming with Chinese and Russian vessels. This is nonsense,” said Paal Sigurd Hilde of the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.
China’s modest Arctic military footprint has grown primarily through collaboration with Russia since 2022.
The two nations have increased joint patrols, including a 2024 bomber mission near Alaska.
China also operates icebreakers with mini-submarines for seabed mapping and satellites for observation, which it says are for scientific research.
“China’s only pathway to gaining significant influence in the Arctic goes through Russia,” Hilde noted.
Beijing launched its Polar Silk Road initiative in 2018, aiming to become a “polar great power” by 2030.
It has research stations in Iceland and Norway, with investments in Russian LNG and a Swedish railway.
“China has clear ambitions to expand its footprint and influence in the region,” said Helena Legarda of the Mercator Institute for China Studies.
She warned competition for resources and trade routes could threaten European interests.
Recent Chinese investment attempts in the Arctic have faced significant pushback.
Proposals to buy an abandoned naval base in Greenland and an airport in Finland both failed, reportedly under US pressure.
Greenland also rejected China’s Huawei for its 5G network in 2019.
“Actual security issues are very hard to identify,” said Jesper Willaing Zeuthen of Aalborg University.
Greenland possesses the world’s eighth-largest reserves of rare earth elements.
Chinese attempts to mine these, however, have seen limited success.
A major project at Kvanefjeld was halted in 2021 over environmental concerns.
Another deposit was sold to a US firm in 2024 after American lobbying.
“There was a fear that mining investments could have led to Chinese influence a decade ago, but the investments never materialised,” Zeuthen said.
He added that Beijing now discourages engagement due to high diplomatic costs.
The Polar Silk Road aims to create Arctic shipping routes as ice melts, potentially halving travel time between China and Europe.
China and Russia agreed to develop the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coast last October.
This route does not pass by Greenland, contradicting Trump’s claims of Chinese ships near the island.
Chinese ships made only 14 voyages on this route last year, mostly carrying Russian gas.
Zeuthen maintains there is no sign of Chinese military activity around Greenland.