The Texas Senate candidate whom President Donald Trump boosted to a primary victory over a four-term incumbent Republican is now locked in a dead heat with his Democratic challenger, a stunning new poll shows.
The Texas Pulse Poll conducted by Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government & Public Service and ReconMR found that Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-ridden attorney general, trails Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico. Each candidate has 46 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Trump endorsed Paxton over sitting Republican Sen. John Cornyn shortly before the primary runoff election last week, which greatly contributed to Cornyn’s bruising primary loss.
That boosted Democrats’ slim hopes of flipping the seat in a Republican stronghold state that Trump won by double digits. Before the primary, Cornyn warned that Paxton’s numerous scandals could hurt him.
On Monday, Dan Cogdell, Paxton’s impeachment attorney endorsed Talarico.
Paxton had been impeached by the state House of Representatives, though the Texas state Senate acquitted him; is in the process of a messy divorce because of alleged infidelity; and filed a lawsuit to try and overturn the 2020 election results in swing states that voted for Joe Biden. He had previously been under federal indictment as well.
But Republicans have sought to paint Talarico as out of step and too liberal for the state. Specifically, Republicans have pointed to a video in which Talarico spoke to the Texas Humane Legislation Network, where he said, “it is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption” and that his 2022 re-election campaign was a “non-meat campaign.”
That paved the way for Paxton to label him “Tofu Talarico” and falsely paint him as vegan. In response, Talarico said, “I’ve been eating barbecue since Ken Paxton’s first indictment.”
Republicans have also criticized Talarico for having said, “God is non-binary” when defending transgender people in the legislature and that there are at least six sexes.
NEW: The Trump-aligned org Citizens for Sanity is dropping a six-figure ad buy in the Texas Senate race.
— Reagan Reese (@reaganreese_) June 9, 2026
The ad is a 15 second clip of AI-generated James Talarico singing a "trans kids" rendition of “Favorite Things."
Obtained first by @DailyCaller: pic.twitter.com/JNY8vxYueG
On Tuesday, The Daily Caller reported that the Trump-aligned Citizens for Sanity released an AI video depicting Talarico as Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music talking about administering gender-affirming care to transgender youth sung to “My Favorite Things.”
James Talarico (D) comes out to oppose gender reassignment surgery for minors in new interview #TexasSenate pic.twitter.com/f5wcfF4LHz
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) June 8, 2026
At the same time, on Monday, during a podcast interview with Codgell, Talarico said he opposed “gender reassignment surgeries for minors.”
Led by Trump, Republicans have hit Democrats for supporting transgender youth in women’s sports on the college and high school level and for offering gender-affirming care for transgender people younger than the age of 18.
But the poll showed that many people still do not like Paxton after his numerous scandals. The survey showed that 54 percent of Texans have an unfavorable opinion of Paxton and only 34 percent have a favorable opinion of him. In addition, 24 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of him.
By contrast, 45 percent of Texans have a favorable opinion of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, with 84 percent of Republicans having a favorable opinion of him.
The poll also showed that 41 percent of Texans have a favorable opinion of Talarico, 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him and 25 percent do not know or have no opinion of him.
The poll was conducted between June 1-4, surveying 804 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of four percent.
A host of Democratic senators have already opened their leadership political action committees to support Talarico. The leadership PACs of Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) all sent $5,000 contributions to Talarico’s campaign.
Correction: An earlier version of this story reported that James Talarico led Ken Paxton 47 percent to 44 percent in the Texas A&M poll. The polling data from Texas A&M did show that but was later revised to show they are tied at 46 percent each and The Independent’s reporting has been updated to reflect that.
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