US President Donald Trump extends ceasefire with Iran, but Tehran’s demands and mutual distrust threaten a diplomatic resolution to the costly conflict.
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump has extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, appearing to search for a way out of a costly and politically damaging war. Tehran, however, may be unwilling to grant him a diplomatic victory.
The conflict was launched by Israel and the United States. Trump insists on maintaining a naval blockade, which Iran demands must end before considering any agreement.
For a president who boasts of securing quick deals, negotiating with Iran’s methodical and unyielding diplomatic establishment presents an ultimate contrast. Hopes for progress at a second round of talks in Pakistan were dashed when Iran refused to confirm attendance, causing designated envoy Vice President JD Vance to stay home.
With the initial two-week ceasefire ending, Trump stated the extension was because Iran’s leadership, decimated by the war, was “fractured” and needed time to formulate a proposal. Gulf Arab allies of the US are bracing for potential new Iranian strikes.
“He really could have doubled down and engaged in more reckless military action,” said Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute. “But so far he has stopped digging himself into a deeper hole.”
The war has proven politically disastrous for Trump, who campaigned on shunning military intervention. It faces opposition from even his Republican base.
Iran responded to the attack by exerting control over the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil. This action has increased fuel costs for American consumers months before congressional elections.
Despite suffering losses, Iran’s clerical state is not on the verge of collapse and will not surrender, according to Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence expert. “Trump does not want escalation,” Citrinowicz said. “I am not saying there is not going to be one, but he is trying to really exhaust any political option.”
Citrinowicz believes Trump is fed up with the war and understands the price will only intensify. Iranian leaders remain deeply suspicious of Trump, noting that US negotiators were discussing a deal with them days before the joint US-Israeli attack commenced.
A similar pattern occurred last June, with talks just before an Israeli bombing campaign. Both Trump and Iran’s ruling clerics are highly sensitive to any perception of backing down.
Vatanka argued that by declaring the naval blockade during the ceasefire, Trump forced Iran to respond, undermining his own diplomacy “for the sake of optics and looking strong.” One potential off-ramp, Vatanka suggested, is for the US to maintain the blockade but not enforce it rigorously.
“The Iranians would know if it’s not being enforced because that is easy to measure,” Vatanka said. Iran could claim a win, but if they insist on a full opening, “that tells me they’re more interested in the optics than actually getting a deal.”
Trump has not indicated any let-up on the blockade. Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime advocate for striking Iran, indicated the blockade could become the key US means of pressure.
After speaking with Trump, Graham wrote that “the blockade will be growing and that it could become global soon.” Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy said Trump faces a dilemma on the blockade.
Lifting it would reinforce to Iran how much leverage it has gained. Keeping it risks ending the ceasefire. “The prevailing view in Tehran is that time is on its side and that a prolonged conflict would impose mounting costs on the US and the global economy,” Toossi said.
