THE University of Asia & the Pacific Center for Food and Agri Business (UA&P-CFA) projects a “flat horizon” for the agriculture, fisheries, and forestry cluster this year, forecasting between a 0.5 percent decline to 0.5 percent growth.
This follows a 3.1 percent expansion in 2025, the cluster’s strongest in five years, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Growth was driven by poultry (9.1 percent), other agricultural activities and services (3.9 percent), crops (3.1 percent), and fisheries (0.5 percent), while livestock and forestry declined 2.0 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
UA&P-CFA executive director Marie Annette Dacul said the 2025 growth was not a breakthrough, but largely a recovery from a 1.5 percent decline in 2024, when the country was hit by both La Niña and El Niño.
For this year, the research center expects mixed subsector performance.
Poultry should remain the strongest performer, growing 7.5-8.5 percent after a 7.0 percent first-quarter expansion, supported by steady demand and efficient commercial production.
Livestock is projected to grow 4.0-5.0 percent, continuing a gradual recovery from African swine fever (ASF), though full recovery will take time.
Crop production, however, is expected to decline 3.0-4.0 percent, following a 2.6 percent drop in the first quarter, pressured by high input costs and weather uncertainty.
Fisheries output is projected to contract 3.0-4.0 percent after a 5.0 percent first-quarter decline, hurt by climate variability and high fuel costs tied to the US-Iran War in the Middle East.
UA&P-CFA flagged several risks facing the cluster: environmental threats such as El Niño, more frequent typhoons, and emerging water scarcity; economic pressures including high input costs and food inflation; pathological risks like pest infestations, ASF, and avian influenza; and systemic vulnerabilities tied to import dependency and exposure to geopolitical and energy shocks.
To address these concerns, it recommended focusing on six priority areas: climate-smart agriculture; digital agriculture; high-value agriculture; agribusiness processing; logistics modernization; and export development.
Dacul cited measures such as weather-resilient crop varieties, precision water management, and modernized cold chain and logistics systems to reduce post-harvest losses.
She also urged a shift toward high-value crops, greater investment in value-added processing, and targeting niche export markets for Philippine agricultural products.
“The challenge for the next decade is no longer just about producing more food; it’s about resilience,” Dacul said.
