The UK population could reach nearly 74 million by 2036, up from the latest estimate of 67 million, with net migration adding around six million people, figures suggest.
There could be an additional one million people in the UK aged 85 and over during the next 15 years.
The data has been published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and assumes a level of long-term net international migration of 315,000 a year from mid-2028 onwards.
All the figures are projections, not predictions, because they are based on current and past trends.
The population of the UK is projected to increase by 9.9% in the first 15 years of the projections:
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) January 30, 2024
▪️ from an estimated 67.0 million in mid-2021
▪️ to an estimated 73.7 million in mid-2036 pic.twitter.com/XLPgXgZRhs
The actual levels of future migration and population may be higher or lower, and will be “affected by policy changes as well as the impact of as yet unknown migrant behaviour patterns”, the ONS said.
The population of the UK is projected to grow from an estimated 67.0 million in mid-2021 to 73.7 million by mid-2036, an increase of around 6.6 million or 9.9%.
Over this period it is projected that 10.8 million people will be born, 10.3 million will die, 13.7 million will move long term to the UK while 7.6 million people will emigrate.
This means that of the projected 6.6 million increase, 0.5 million would come from a higher number of births than deaths, while 6.1 million would result from net international migration.
Put simply, if migration comes down so will future projections
Commenting on the figures, James Robards of the ONS said: “Expert views and the latest data covering the last 10 years has led us to develop a long-term net migration assumption of 315,000 each year from year ending mid-2028 onwards.
“It is important to recognise that there is uncertainty in the provisional international migration estimates. Future migration will be affected by policy changes as well as the impact of as yet unknown migrant behavioural patterns in the future.
“Put simply, if migration comes down so will future projections.
“If net international migration were to be, say, 20% higher than our long-term assumption, then it would be 379,000 per year. If it were to be 20% lower than our assumption, then it would be 253,000 per year.
“That is why we call these projections and not forecasts. There is uncertainty and these differences would affect the total size of the population accordingly.”
