The UK has emerged from its fifth heatwave of the year as the summer is on track to be the hottest on record.
Temperatures hit 38.1C in London on Thursday and provisional Met Office data has shown that the UK’s mean temperature for meteorological summer so far is currently at 16.48C – that is 1.88C above the 1991 to 2020 average temperature.
England has recorded a mean summer temperature of 18.19C so far, 2.46C above average. The remainder of August would need to be 1.41C below the summer average for England to equal its current warmest summer on record, also set in 2025.
Persistent dry and hot weather has taken its toll on England and Wales with about 70 per cent in drought.
Following a record dry July and very low levels of rain at the start of August, 27 million people are now under water-use restrictions.
But is there another dry and sunny spell looming over the UK?
What does the long range forecast say?
In a Sunday update, Met Office meteorologist Tom Morgan said: “I can’t promise rain for all of us through the week ahead, but in the south at least, it’s looking like the most changeable week we’ve seen here – well at least since the end of June.”
A jet stream which has been far in the north of the UK has allowed high pressure to dominate, causing the recent excessively hot conditions, Mr Morgan said.
Mr Morgan said it would travel south, meaning that low pressure will dominate, adding: “So a much more changeable and at times unsettled outlook through the middle part of the week – low pressure will dominate and slowly drift its way southwards.”
He said it would start to turn “cooler” as wind switches to a northerly direction, adding: “So as well as some rain, showers, and even thunderstorms in places, it will certainly feel considerably fresher than recent weeks in the south.”
Looking ahead, the Met Office’s long range weather forecast predicts that the changeable weather is likely to continue, with “parts of the UK seeing showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain” from Friday, 21 August to Sunday, 30 August.
It adds: “Temperatures are more likely to be above normal than below overall, though the possibility of widespread or exceptional heat is lower than in recent weeks.”
However, towards the start of September, the mercury could climb once again.
The Met Office notes that from Monday, 31 August to Monday, 14 September “temperatures are likely to be above average overall”, while “there is a chance that late season hot spells or heatwaves develop, especially in the south.”
Should the necessary conditions be met, this would mark the UK’s sixth heatwave this summer.
What records have been broken this summer?
The Met Office said on Thursday afternoon temperatures had reached 37.6C at Charlwood in Surrey, while at Wisley temperatures had hit 37.2C, and Kew Gardens in London had recorded a temperature of 38.1C – the highest temperature recorded in the UK this year.
A further 10 weather stations were at or above 36C, the provisional figures from the Met Office showed.
It makes 2026 the first year on record to see three separate days where temperatures reached the 37C threshold, as well as the first year with four days at 36C or above.
Before 2026, the UK had recorded 37C or higher on only six occasions.
It also extends 2026’s record-breaking run of days above 35C.
For four months in a row temperatures hit 35C in the UK on at least one day in May, June, July and now August.
July was also the driest month since records began in 1836 in both England and Wales, southern England alone had its driest calendar month ever on record.
By 15 July this year the UK had already recorded more days above 30C than in the whole of 1976, which was known for its long-lasting heatwave.
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