Speculation has resurfaced over a possible revival of Muafakat Nasional, the once-attempted cooperation between Umno and PAS following the 14th General Election, amid signs of strain within Perikatan Nasional after political setbacks in Perlis. However, political analysts largely agree that a renewed Umno–PAS alliance remains improbable in the near term, and that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is likely to retain power for now.
According to political risk observers, recent calls from Umno figures urging a withdrawal from the unity government appear more symbolic than substantive. Such statements are viewed as internal posturing ahead of Umno’s general assembly scheduled for January 2026, rather than an indication of an imminent break from the ruling coalition.
The current balance of power in the Dewan Rakyat continues to favour Anwar. Out of 222 parliamentary seats, 112 are required to form a simple majority. The unity government presently commands around 153 seats, anchored by Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional, and strong backing from East Malaysian coalitions. Even if Umno and its Barisan Nasional partners were to withdraw their 30 seats, Anwar would still retain an estimated 123 seats—enough to remain in office—provided support from Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah continues.
Political researchers note that parties from Sabah and Sarawak have historically prioritised regional autonomy and policy leverage. With the Anwar administration placing emphasis on fulfilling commitments under the Malaysia Agreement 1963, East Malaysian blocs are seen as having little incentive to defect from the current arrangement.
Some analysts suggest that, even in the unlikely event Umno exits the cabinet, the party may still support Anwar from outside the government until the 16th General Election. This approach would allow Umno lawmakers to retain access to federal allocations while easing internal dissatisfaction among grassroots members.
Nevertheless, Umno’s withdrawal could reshape political narratives. Observers warn that a unity government without Umno may face perceptions of diminished Malay representation, even if it remains constitutionally legitimate. Such a scenario could motivate Umno to explore renewed cooperation with PAS, particularly as tensions persist between PAS and Bersatu within Perikatan Nasional.
A leaner government, while viable, would also carry risks. With a reduced majority, the administration would fall short of the numbers needed to amend the Federal Constitution, potentially slowing institutional reforms. It would also become more vulnerable to defections, increasing the influence of smaller parties and individual MPs.
Should uncertainty escalate, Anwar may seek to reaffirm his mandate through a parliamentary confidence vote or formal declarations of support, reinforcing political stability as the current term continues.
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