PARIS: Global commitments to cut planet-heating emissions are falling far short of the Paris climate goals, putting the world on course for 2.6C of warming this century, the United Nations warned on Wednesday.
The report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) lays bare the gap between rhetoric and action in tackling global warming, as well as the challenge facing political leaders at November’s COP31 climate summit.
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Even if countries fully deliver on their latest climate pledges, global temperatures could still rise 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, according to the annual Emissions Gap Report.
That would exceed the historic goal agreed in Paris of keeping warming well below 2C while striving to limit it to 1.5C for a safer future. Any chance of limiting warming to 1.5C had been “lost” due to decades of insufficient climate action, the report said.
“The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree limit, and the consequences are already devastating,” UN chief Antonio Guterres said in a statement launching the closely watched report.
“Deadly floods, brutal heatwaves, raging wildfires, lost lives, crippled economies, deepening inequalities, and those least responsible are suffering first and worst.”
Overall, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 were broadly on a par with record levels in 2024, with the difference between the two years too small to be significant, the report said.
Carbon emissions from burning coal, oil and gas alone — the main drivers of climate change — rose slightly in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Guterres said deep and immediate cuts were needed to protect humanity from worsening impacts. Instead, “emissions remain at record levels. And national climate plans and current policies fall dangerously short”.
If countries stick to current policies, warming would reach 2.8C, the report said.
No country immune
Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree above 1.5C increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and the likelihood of irreversible changes to the planet, from dying coral reefs to melting permafrost.
The world has already warmed by roughly 1.4C compared with pre-industrial times, and the 1.5C threshold is expected to be crossed within a matter of years.
The G20 accounts for three-quarters of global emissions, but Guterres said “all countries, especially the big emitters, must do more” to stop the planet from heating further.
This latest UNEP warming outlook is worse than last year’s, owing to the formal withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and upward revisions to historical emissions, said report co-author Anne Olhoff.
Emissions growth slowed among G20 members, but the US was a “major exception”, the report added.
Among the world’s six largest emitters, preliminary data for 2025 showed emissions increases in the US, Indonesia and China, and decreases in India, Russia and the European Union.
In terms of magnitude, however, the US increase of 133 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent “far exceeded” that of any other country, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal-fired power generation.
The next-largest increase was recorded in Turkey, which is hosting the UN climate summit in Antalya from November 9 to 20.
The US is the world’s second-largest polluter, behind China. US President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax and rolled back clean energy policies while boosting fossil fuel production.
UNEP executive secretary Inger Andersen told reporters that no country was shielded from climate change, with its impacts being felt “on every nation on the planet, including the US”.
‘Historic failure’
The report outlines a scenario in which there is a 50 per cent chance of bringing global warming back down to 1.5C by 2100.
To achieve this, warming would have to peak at around 1.8C by 2050, while vast amounts of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the atmosphere to bring temperatures down further.
However, this scenario assumes immediate emissions cuts of six per cent a year, every year, until 2035 — a target far beyond current projections.
“The main takeaway is simple — governments need to get on with enacting policies that cut fossil fuel use as soon as possible,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of global policy institute Climate Analytics.
Some climate-vulnerable developing nations have accused major emitters of abandoning the Paris goals, and a showdown over the 1.5C target is expected at COP31.
“This is a historic failure of political leadership. The science has been clear for decades, but governments have chosen delay over action. The consequences will be measured in lives lost, not just degrees of warming,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa.
Guterres agreed that there was a climate “leadership gap” but said overshooting 1.5C “is not surrender”.
