Political analysts say while the Unity government may last until GE16, the political partnership between PH and BN faces severe strain as Umno explores ties with PAS.
PETALING JAYA: The Unity government may survive until GE16 but the political partnership between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) seems to be in dire straits, analysts say.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Assoc Prof Dr Syaza Shukri said Umno’s increasingly open discussion of a future without PH suggested the relationship had moved beyond ordinary political bargaining.
She added that the Unity government was politically incapacitated, although it remained in place for now and could continue functioning until Parliament is dissolved.
Her assessment comes as Umno increasingly signals it is preparing for a different political configuration, with PAS emerging as its most obvious potential electoral partner.
Syaza said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim should instead focus on strengthening his relationship with East Malaysian coalitions Gabungan Parti Sarawak and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah if he wants to counter a possible PAS-BN alignment.
“It won’t be easy, but he has to figure out how to counter PAS-BN.”
Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan went further in assessing the future of the PH-BN relationship.
“I would say the Pakatan-Barisan alliance is not on borrowed time, but I think it’s already over.”
He said Malacca could provide the next indication of whether Umno is prepared to abandon any expectation of a pre-election arrangement with PH.
He added that seat allocation would be a major stumbling block, particularly as Umno increasingly seeks room to cooperate with PAS.
“Malacca will be the first test or the next test in this particular issue because it is very, very obvious that Barisan don’t want to go solo.”
Azmi said Umno should instead be expected to pursue its own interests or work with other political forces before GE16.
He said this could create an unusual situation for the Unity government, adding that the administration could remain intact while the parties within it prepare for different electoral battles.
He also said Umno could continue supporting the government in Parliament while simultaneously negotiating with PAS and considering a post-GE16 arrangement that excludes PH.
Syaza said Anwar would probably try to extend the current government for as long as possible, but Umno also had reasons to delay making any final decision until its negotiations with PAS became clearer.
“I disagree with Zahid’s challenge,” she said, referring to the Umno president’s call for those who wanted to end the arrangement to act quickly.
“A motion of no confidence should come from outside PH. If he’s serious, he should do it. Without that, it’s all talk.”
However, she said the political calculations could change once Umno and PAS reached a concrete agreement.
“Maybe if they can come to a concrete agreement, they might pull the trigger in the middle of next year.”
