Global weather patterns are set to experience "far-reaching" consequences after the ongoing El Niño climate event surpassed all historical records several weeks before reaching its expected peak, the Met Office has warned.
Forecasting experts at the Met Office highlighted that the phenomenon, which has previously been termed a "super" or even "Godzilla" El Niño, broke earlier records well ahead of its culmination later in the season.
The naturally-occurring climate event develops across the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern regions become markedly warmer than average, disrupting standard atmospheric circulation patterns and substantially influencing global weather conditions as a result.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: "We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event.
"The fact that it has already exceeded previous records, with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year, shows the enormity of this El Niño.
"Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide."
For the UK that means an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and early winter, while later in the season El Nino is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps.
Elsewhere, the Indian monsoon is running below normal, which is consistent with the developing El Nino, the Met Office said, while other areas such as southern Africa may be at increased risk of drought.
The event will have impacts worldwide, affecting everything from agriculture to water, energy demand, wildfire risk and nature.
The current El Niño is developing on top of human-caused climate change, which is mostly as a result of burning fossil fuels for power, heating, transport and industry and is causing temperature rises and more extreme weather, and is likely to push up global temperatures in 2027 to new record levels.
Met Office science fellow Dr Nick Dunstone said: “During large El Niño events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be yet another year to temporarily exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.”
Global warming of 1.5C, even temporarily, is seen as a significant threshold, as countries have committed to try to curb climate change to that level over the long term, to prevent the worst impacts of climate-driven floods, droughts, melting ice and extreme heat and collapse of natural systems.
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