There are only two ways to legitimately topple the unity government in this context.
The first method involves raising a no-confidence motion in parliament and securing the support of at least 112 Members of Parliament (MPs) to vote in favor of it. The second method is a more secretive approach, which requires the King to believe that the Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the house.
In this case, the leader of the opposition usually presents a Statutory Declaration (SD) signed by a minimum of 112 MPs to the King, indicating their preference for the opposition leader to lead the government. If the King believes the proposal, he may request the Prime Minister to step down.
Although the second method is not explicitly mentioned in the constitution, it has been legitimized through practice. In the past, both state and federal governments have been changed using the SD to King method.
Therefore, currently, it can be considered a legitimate way to topple the government. Between the two methods, if the opposition intends to topple the government, they are more likely to pursue option two.
This is because option one has several obstacles to overcome. For instance, permission from the Speaker is required to table a motion of no confidence, and the Speaker is likely to be in favor of the government. Moreover, the government can use the one-month delay granted by the Speaker to frustrate the opposition's plans to change the government.
The anti-hopping bill is another challenge for the opposition. While the bill may appear to be rendered ineffective due to some opposition MPs supporting the government while remaining in the opposition, its enforcement is still within the government's hands. If the government activates the anti-hopping law to prevent its MPs from switching support to the opposition, it would be acting hypocritically.
However, politicians may not hesitate to resort to hypocrisy if it means retaining power. Practically, the opposition is burdened by the fact that they need simultaneous support from multiple factions to successfully change the government, while the unity government can afford to lose support from one faction and still remain in power.
Therefore, the opposition needs the support of both Umno and GPS to change the government, while the unity government can continue even if it loses the support of one of these factions. Additionally, the opposition faces internal challenges.
The President of Umno, Zahid Hamidi, although unpopular and seen unfavourably by grassroots members, is still the legally recognized president. Before Umno MPs can support Muhyiddin, they would first have to rebel against their own president.
Furthermore, the opposition leader Anwar has been providing benefits to GPS, which has likely influenced their allegiance to the unity government. Considering these factors, it is likely that the opposition will attempt to use the second method to topple the government, with the support of MPs and the favour of the King. Reports suggest that the opposition, alongside the Mahathir-Daim inner circle, has set aside a large sum of money to buy the support of MPs.
However, it may still be challenging for the opposition to gain MP support, as Anwar, who leads the government, also has financial resources at his disposal. Furthermore, the next King of Malaysia, the Sultan of Johor, is anticipated to favour Anwar's rule. It is speculated that the Sultan may have influenced the King's council in favour of Anwar during discussions about the next Prime Minister after the general elections.
Given past preferences and open disagreements with Mahathir, it is suggested that the opposition may need to present more than 112 SDs to sway the King's favour. Considering the current circumstances, the balance of probability is in favour of the unity government continuing its reign.
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