Trump’s naval blockade of Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 25% of global oil supply and risking a major diplomatic and military confrontation.
PRESIDENT Donald Trump has deployed the US Navy – the finest in the world – to block access to Iranian ports after ceasefire talks in Islamabad failed to go his way. His latest tactic is to apply sea power to scuttle a defiant Iran, which has refused to surrender its stockpile of enriched uranium – despite Trump’s claim that it was obliterated during Operation Midnight Hammer last June.
Three factors are likely to determine the outcome of the blockade, which is still in its early stages: geography, resources and compliance.
Experts agree that geography is a constraining factor. The Strait of Hormuz is narrow with a long coastline that favours defence against an external force. By using coastal artillery batteries, missiles, drones and small boats, Iran can inflict massive damage on the US Navy at close range. In addition, a narrow strait is relatively easy to mine and defend.
The US Navy requires large resources to cordon off a complex area like the Persian Gulf and its surroundings. To be effective, a blockade would require sustained firepower, along with surface combatants, aircraft carriers and submarines operating around the clock.
Currently, more than 10,000 ground troops and fighter jets have been deployed, along with two aircraft carriers, destroyers, littoral combat ships and submarines. However, this level of force may still be insufficient to enforce a total blockade.
Augmenting the shortfall requires stripping the assets from other regional operational theatres. This action will further weaken US deterrence capabilities elsewhere and will send the wrong signal to China, for example.
Compliance is key. What plans does the US have to deal with non-compliance? How is the US Navy going to force foreign-flag vessels (for example, Japan, China, Russia, Vietnam and India), which have already paid US$2 million (RM7.90 million) (or Yuan equivalent) toll per vessel for the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, without causing a diplomatic showdown?
Dealing with non-compliance state parties can be messy. During World War II, Allied forces – especially the UK,and later the French – mounted blockades on Germany and the Central Powers with mixed success, often causing disruption for neutral nations caught in the crossfire.
A blockade can also be time-consuming and costly. During the American Civil War, for example, the Union took three years to subdue the South via blockades. In this context, the term “piracy” is used in a layman’s sense, referring to an outright act of plunder or unlawful interference at sea, rather than its strict legal definition under international law.
Under international law, a pirate ship may be pursued and seized by any state, regardless of its flag or nationality. In practice, however, states are often reluctant to make arrests or pursue prosecutions, particularly if they lack clear domestic laws on piracy or wish to avoid diplomatic complications.
However, in this case – where the US has reportedly used force against Iran without authorisation from the United Nations Security Council – the action could be characterised as a violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
It would also be difficult to justify such action as self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, which permits the use of force only in response to an armed attack and subject to conditions of necessity and proportionality.
History shows that naval blockades of enemy ports are difficult to enforce, particularly when the resources and assets available are limited. While the US Navy holds superior firepower, the geography of the Strait of Hormuz favours the defender, allowing a weaker adversary like Iran to undermine the effectiveness of the blockade.
By blockading Iranian ports, the US Navy has effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that carries roughly 25% of the world’s oil supply and significant volumes of natural gas and fertiliser.
BA Hamzah is a former lecturer in strategic studies at the National Defence University of Malaysia. He also served at the Defence Ministry, Institute of Strategic and International Studies and Maritime Institute of Malaysia. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com
