- The United States has reportedly warned Poland about a potential Russian "provocation" designed to test Nato’s resolve, which could involve targeting Polish infrastructure or even a ground incursion.
- Sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki suggest Moscow's aim for such an attack, potentially within months, would be to escalate tensions and pressure Ukraine's Western allies to suspend military and financial aid.
- Warsaw's security services are considering various scenarios, including a small, conventional ground incursion that Russia might claim as an accident, drone attacks on critical infrastructure, or simulated air strikes.
- An extreme possibility involves a "hybrid attack" in the border region, where Russian or Belarusian troops might cross into Polish territory, presented as a mistake due to GPS failure or a fake rescue mission.
- It is believed that Russia would hope such an incident would compel Poland, under US pressure, to negotiate rather than retaliate, potentially leading to a cessation of Western support for Ukraine as a condition for Russian withdrawal.
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