SINGAPORE, Sept 4 — The dollar started today on a steady footing as investors assessed US jobs data that showed some signs of cooling and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve was likely at the end of its monetary tightening cycle.
Data on Friday showed US job growth picked up in August, but the unemployment rate jumped to 3.8 per cent, while wage gains moderated. The economy created 110,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in June and July.
“The Goldilocks metaphor is much used and abused in economic and financial circles, but in relation to the various ‘soft landing’ signals emanating from the report, on this occasion it does seem entirely appropriate,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank.
Markets are pricing in a 93 per cent chance of the Fed holding steady on rates this month, and over 60 per cent probability of no more hikes this year, CME FedWatch tool showed.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 104.20 but remained close to the two-month peak of 104.44 it touched on August 25. The index rose 1.7 per cent in August, snapping its two month losing streak. US markets are closed today.
A string of economic data highlighting moderating inflation as well as an easing labour market have added to the impression the US economy is cooling without slowing sharply, reinforcing hopes that the economy is set for a soft landing.
However, Citi strategists are warning of a harder landing, saying in a note that “sticky wage and price inflation will lead to higher-for-longer policy rates and an eventual more substantial slowing of economic activity.”
Investor focus will be on a number of Fed officials due to speak this week for clues on what the US central bank would do at their next policy meeting on September 19-20.
The Japanese yen
Japan intervened in currency markets last year in September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around ¥140.
The euro was up 0.05 per cent to US$1.0778, while sterling was last at US$1.2596, up 0.06 per cent on the day.
The Australian dollar added 0.17 per cent to US$0.646 ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting tomorrow when they are expected to stand pat. A Reuters poll showed that all but two of 36 economists said the RBA would hold its official cash rate at 4.10 per cent on September 5.
Canada’s central bank is due to meet this week and is expected to hold rates. The Canadian dollar was flat at 1.36 per dollar.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoinwas last trading up 0.58 per cent at US$25,901.24. Ethereum, advanced 0.45 per cent to US$1,634.65. — Reuters