US holiday retail sales are expected to grow by as much as 4.8 percent this year, Deloitte said on Thursday, as rising disposable incomes help support spending in the crucial shopping season despite consumers' continued focus on value.
Retailers have been navigating uneven consumer spending, with budget-conscious shoppers cutting back amid higher fuel and household costs while still selectively spending on treats and seasonal splurges.
Sales during the November 2026 to January 2027 period are expected to rise between 4 percent and 4.8 percent, compared with 4.1 percent growth in the same period a year earlier, Deloitte said, citing data from agencies including the US Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
That translates to holiday sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion a year earlier, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers.
The consultancy forecast disposable personal income, its preferred bellwether for retail and e-commerce demand, to rise 4.5 percent to 5.2 percent during the holiday season.
"Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend," said Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte.
Shoppers at every income level are looking for deals, switching brands and shopping across retailers to stretch their budgets, Martini added.
E-commerce sales are expected to increase between 7.5 percent and 8.4 percent, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion during the holiday season. Online sales grew 7.5 percent to an estimated $294 billion in the same period a year earlier.
